482
FXUS63 KJKL 180125
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
925 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT ONE LAST VERY WARM DAY ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL THEN BRING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
- FOLLOWING THE FRONT, EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR NEXT WEEK, CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN SHELTERED VALLEYS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED BASED ON
CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED SATELLITE TRENDS, LOWERED SKY GRIDS ABOUT
20 PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
ANOTHER TRANQUIL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IS UNFOLDING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOW DEW POINTS,
COURTESY OF AN ~1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO
AT 20Z. ALOFT, A 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY AND MICHIGAN TO JAMES BAY.
UPSTREAM, A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MANITOBA TO THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THIS IS MIRRORED AT THE SURFACE BY AN
~989 MB LOW NEAR OR OVER LAKE WINNIPEG, WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARCS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO NEW MEXICO. A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO THE NORTHERN U.S.
ROCKIES.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED TRAILING TROUGH WILL DIG DEEPLY AS
IT DIVES SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, EFFECTIVELY CAPTURING THE LEADING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BECOMING A DEEP, NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT, PRECEDING THE TROUGH AXIS, WILL BECOME THE FOCAL
POINT FOR RAPID CYCLOGENESIS, INITIALLY OVER THE OSAGE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE RACING NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING TO AN ~985
MB LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEST
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET PUMPING WARMTH AND MOISTURE
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME GEFS MEAN 850 MB
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS OR 95TH+ PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
IN MANY COOL SEASON EVENTS, LOW-LEVEL STABILITY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL INVERSION, OFTEN ENHANCED BY RAINFALL, WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT JET TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, AS THIS EVENT APPROACHES, THE
LOW-LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE DRY AND MORE MIXED AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT (MORE THAN 4 MB ACROSS
THE AREA) FOR VALLEYS THAT DECOUPLE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING TO
RECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, VIRGA FALLING INTO THE DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE STEEPENING FOR AT LEAST MODERATE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO
THE SURFACE UNTIL THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME SATURATED AND PROHIBITIVE
TO SUBSTANTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE SHARPLY DEFINED WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY
FORCING A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION (QLCS). WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MINIMAL AND MODEL SOUNDING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE LOW
(GENERALLY WARMER THAN -20C), STRONG FORCING AND RAPIDLY
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES UP TO 850 MB OR DEEPER ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COULD SUPPORT STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY SO IN ANY SEGMENTS OF THE LINE THAT BECOME
MORE N-S TO NW-SE ORIENTED. THIS SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES
OF DAMAGING WINDS (NOTED IN THE SPC DAY 2 AND 3 MARGINAL CWO),
DESPITE INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN MOST CASES.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS STRONGER WINDS SURFACING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 8Z SUNDAY, WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING
BETWEEN 11Z AND 17Z, WEST TO EAST. WHILE WINDS MAY SLACKEN FOR A
FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
SURFACE HEATING, STRONG CAA, AND A STILL-ROBUST 30 TO 40 KNOT
WESTERLY 850 MB JET WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. GFS/NAM MIXED-LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER
GUIDANCE FROM BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64. SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THE TUMBLE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES, FROM
~12-15C AT SUNRISE TO ~2-5C BY SUNSET, WILL LEAD TO FALLING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID-50S FOR MOST, THOUGH SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER HOLLOWS COULD
DIP INTO THE 40S. ON SATURDAY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL,
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S,
AIDED BY A SOUTHERLY BREEZE. AFTER A LULL SATURDAY EVENING, SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OVERNIGHT, LIKELY
REACHING A PEAK WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
NEARLY STEADY IN THE 60S OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY. STRONG WINDS,
GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH, AND GUSTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE DAY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70, BUT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AT THE TRANSITION POINT BETWEEN TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. FIRST, THE WEEKEND’S STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DEPART, LEAVING LINGERING IMPACTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. TO THE
WEST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA, AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING WILL
USHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CAA TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHES ITSELF ON MONDAY. HOWEVER,
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS
A NEW TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT INTRODUCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ADVECTING WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER AS THE WAA TRULY TAKES HOLD ALOFT.
CONCURRENTLY ON MONDAY, THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST, THE SURFACE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BY TUESDAY
MORNING, THE VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO
BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE CWA. WITH AN 80-TO-90 KNOT JET CORE SWINGING
OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY, THERE IS A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER-LEVEL MOMENTUM TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, COUPLED WITH INDICATIONS FROM MOMENTUM TRANSFER,
A STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT, AND HIGH LREF PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN
90% FOR GUSTS OVER 25 MPH) INDICATE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 MPH ARE VERY LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE
LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE POP ARE AREAS CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER
AND NORTH; MEANING THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BUT WINDY
ALONG THE MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. AS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT, POST-FRONTAL CAA AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR INSTANCES OF FROST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST, MAINTAINING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS CAA IS
REFLECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 60S. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED CAA CREATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS DUE TO ANTICIPATED RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO SEE A SUBTLE WARM-UP AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HOWEVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL
PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW, LEADING TO
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS
NOTICEABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG LONG-TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REGARDING THE PRECISE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. NONETHELESS, THE OVERALL TREND INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY MULTIPLE PASSING
DISTURBANCES BRINGING GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS, SOME RAIN, AND NOTABLE
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD
VALUES EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE OCTOBER, WITH THE ADDED POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED FROST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRIMARILY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, BUT THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY PEAKING BETWEEN 8 AND
14 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD, ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS (E.G K1A6, KBYL, AND KI35) WILL POSSIBLY
STILL SEE MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE TYPICAL FOG
LATE TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
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