239
FXUS63 KJKL 181910
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
- FOLLOWING THE FRONT, EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECOND, BUT DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR MID WEEK, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN SHELTERED VALLEYS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AN SPS HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE
JKL CWA. A MORE COMPREHENSIVE FORECASTER ANALYSIS IS PLANNED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON'S SHORT-TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS FL TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC,
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM PARS OF THE
PACIFIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS/PLAINS. MOVING WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS APPROACHING THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES
VICINITY WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING FROM MT AND WY TOWARD
THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHEAST US COAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. MEANWHILE, A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED WEST OF HUDSON
BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER SECONDARY FRONT PRECEDED THE MORE
NORTHERN MENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND WAS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DEEPER SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE SOME PATCHES OF FOG
HAVE LIKELY DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL SHIFT TO AND THEN OFF OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST
AND EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT TREKS INTO ONTARIO NEAR
THE MS VALLEY. THE LEAD/PRECEDING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK TO
THE VICINITY OF THE OZARKS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY/COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF EASTERN KY BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MORE OR LESS MERGE WITH
THE ONE UPSTREAM AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION TO SOUTHERN TX THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
PRECEDE THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE AND CROSS EASTERN
KY THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE LINES OR
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD ENCROACH ON
EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY BEFORE DAWN AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING TO MIDDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS
SHOULD LINGER IN ADVANCE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH WITH BREEZY WINDS
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S.
925 MB WINDS PER THE 00Z HREF ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30 TO
40KT+ RANGE LATE TONIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE 850 MB WINDS
ALSO PER THE 00Z HREF SHOULD REACH THE 35 TO 55KT RANGE DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME. STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD MIX A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AND DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY STRONG TO ISOLATED TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTIVE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER
CONVECTION, GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE APPEAR PROBABLE. FOR
WIND GUSTS IN THE GRIDS OPTED TO GO ABOVE THE NBM DETERMINISTIC
VALUES AND BLEND TOWARD THE HIGHER PERCENTILES TO REACH VALUES
SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF SOME OF THE GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS RRFS MEANS. 00Z AND 06Z HRRR AND 00Z HREF MEANS WIND GUSTS
SUGGESTS HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED. THE THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH PW RISES INTO AT LEAST THE 80TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE QUICK STORM MOTION AND
RATHER SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OF THESE VALUES SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH WITH CURRENT FORECAST VALUES IN THE THIRD
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE. THE LOWER VALUES SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER/PINE MTN WHERE
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD CUT INTO AMOUNTS IN AREAS OF LETCHER TOWARD PIKE
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MONDAY, HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, AS BREIF RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN LIEU OF THE EXITING
WEEKEND SYSTEM, TO THE NORTHEAST. FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BEYOND MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MATURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO A COLD FRONT
DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, OVER THE OHIO AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST MID-
LEVELS, WITH SOME DRYING AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS
COULD GUST 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE
LOW, ODDS ARE THIS WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT, DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE LOWER
40S. PATCHY AREAS OF FROST COULD DEVELOP IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE ARE REMAINS IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. GUSTS 20-25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. AT NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S EACH NIGHT HAVE
THE FORMATION OF FROST BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEDNESDAY, AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS MODELED TO COME OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND IN THE MID 40S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, A STRONG JET MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS OVERNIGHT. THOSE WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MORE READILY LATE IN THE NIGHT
AS VIRGA AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 25 TO 35 KT
RANGE, STRONGEST NEAR/WEST OF I-75 AND NEAR/NORTH OF I-64. THE
WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH MID-TO-LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SATURATE AND STABILIZE THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SATURATION WILL ALSO LEAD TO
CEILING RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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