488
FXUS63 KJKL 182040
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
440 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
- FOLLOWING THE FRONT, EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECOND, BUT DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR MID WEEK, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN SHELTERED VALLEYS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE SUMMER-LIKE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, RANGING
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A DEVELOPING
CUMULUS FIELD AND A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE ADD TO THE SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINAS,
DEPARTING INTO THE ATLANTIC, WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST, EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT PRECEDES A DIGGING 500 HPA TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THAT IS PHASING WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND TILT
NEGATIVELY, DIGGING DEEPLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER MISSOURI OR ILLINOIS THIS EVENING, AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN
TO ~990 MB AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A POTENT WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE 15Z RAP13 SHOWING AN ~50
TO 60 KT 850 HPA JET MAX PASSING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MINIMAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD FORCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
FALL INTO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, LEADING TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. THE RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
EXPECTED TO ALLOW SOME MOMENTUM TO TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. GFS
MIXED-LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER GUIDANCE FROM BUFKIT SUPPORTS
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS (AT LEAST 40 MPH) NEAR AND WEST OF I-75
AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES. LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS (PERHAPS EVEN
BREACHING 40 MPH ON THE MOST EXPOSED RIDGETOPS) BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WONT BE AS STRONG AND THE MORE SHELTERED NATURE OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR AN
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION. EVEN SO, WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 25 MPH WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED OBJECTS, THUS WARRANTING AN STRONG WIND SPS ISSUANCE.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE RAINFALL SATURATES AND STABILIZES THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT JET EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, A BROAD AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AT 850
HPA WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS -- 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
START THE DAY NEAR 12-13C BUT DROP TO 1-3C BY SUNSET. UNDER THIS
STRONG CAA REGIME, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER, LEADING TO RENEWED WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM MID-AFTERNOON
SUNDAY THROUGH MID-EVENING. THESE BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE COMBINED
AT TIMES WITH QUICK-HITTING RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS AND STRONG
WINDS WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS AWAY. RAPID
DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHOWERS AS HEIGHTS
RISE RAPIDLY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, A LATE SUMMER-LIKE EVENING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S. WINDS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY
BECOME CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN 3 AM AND 11 AM SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA AND ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, GUSTS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE, THOUGH A FEW OF THE MOST
EXPOSED RIDGETOPS COULD STILL EXPERIENCE A GUST OVER 40 MPH.
AFTER THE WINDS BECOME GUSTY, SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A STABILIZATION OF THE LOW LEVELS
AND A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. ONCE THE INITIAL SHOWERS
DEPART--AROUND 9 AM FOR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND THE BLUEGRASS, AND 1
PM IN THE FAR EAST--WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
WITH THOSE RENEWED WINDS, THERE WILL ALSO BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE
50S. SHOWERS DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH WINDS SLACKENING AND SKIES CLEARING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME
OF THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND ON THE BLUEGRASS
COULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID-30S TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MONDAY, HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, AS BREIF RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN LIEU OF THE EXITING
WEEKEND SYSTEM, TO THE NORTHEAST. FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BEYOND MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MATURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO A COLD FRONT
DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, OVER THE OHIO AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST MID-
LEVELS, WITH SOME DRYING AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS
COULD GUST 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE
LOW, ODDS ARE THIS WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT, DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE LOWER
40S. PATCHY AREAS OF FROST COULD DEVELOP IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE ARE REMAINS IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. GUSTS 20-25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. AT NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S EACH NIGHT HAVE
THE FORMATION OF FROST BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEDNESDAY, AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS MODELED TO COME OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND IN THE MID 40S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, A STRONG JET MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS OVERNIGHT. THOSE WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MORE READILY LATE IN THE NIGHT
AS VIRGA AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 25 TO 35 KT
RANGE, STRONGEST NEAR/WEST OF I-75 AND NEAR/NORTH OF I-64. THE
WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH MID-TO-LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SATURATE AND STABILIZE THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SATURATION WILL ALSO LEAD TO
CEILING RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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