202
FXUS63 KJKL 190040 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
840 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
- FOLLOWING THE FRONT, EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECOND, BUT DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN SHELTERED VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT
HEADING TOWARD KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS PROVIDED
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND WARM TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES WITH A
FEW VALLEYS REPORTING READINGS IN THE 60S. MEANWHILE, AMID SOUTH
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS BUT ALSO TO FINE TUNE THE
POPS PER THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE AS THE FRONT AND ITS GUSTY
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THESE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH
A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE SUMMER-LIKE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, RANGING IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. A DEVELOPING CUMULUS
FIELD AND A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE ADD TO THE SUMMER- LIKE FEEL.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINAS, DEPARTING
INTO THE ATLANTIC, WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONT PRECEDES A DIGGING 500 HPA TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THAT IS PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND TILT NEGATIVELY,
DIGGING DEEPLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI OR
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING, AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO ~990 MB AS IT
RACES NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A POTENT WARM
CONVEYOR BELT JET WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE 15Z RAP13 SHOWING AN ~50 TO 60 KT 850 HPA
JET MAX PASSING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COMMONWEALTH. VERY WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD
FORCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL INTO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER,
LEADING TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW SOME MOMENTUM TO TRANSFER TO
THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. GFS MIXED-LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER GUIDANCE FROM
BUFKIT SUPPORTS ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS (AT LEAST 40 MPH) NEAR AND
WEST OF I-75 AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES.
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS
(PERHAPS EVEN BREACHING 40 MPH ON THE MOST EXPOSED RIDGETOPS) BUT
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WONT BE AS STRONG AND THE MORE SHELTERED NATURE OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS SHOULD KEEP WIND GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FOR AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION. EVEN SO, WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 25 MPH WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED OBJECTS, THUS WARRANTING AN STRONG WIND SPS ISSUANCE.
THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE RAINFALL SATURATES AND STABILIZES THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT JET EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A
BROAD AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AT 850 HPA WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS -- 850 HPA TEMPERATURES START THE
DAY NEAR 12-13C BUT DROP TO 1-3C BY SUNSET. UNDER THIS STRONG CAA
REGIME, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER, LEADING TO RENEWED WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH MID-
EVENING. THESE BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE COMBINED AT TIMES WITH QUICK-
HITTING RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS AWAY. RAPID DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHOWERS AS HEIGHTS RISE RAPIDLY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, A LATE SUMMER-LIKE EVENING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 70S
AND INTO THE 60S. WINDS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY BECOME CALM FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND
WEST OF I-75 AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE POTTSVILLE ESCARPMENT BETWEEN
3 AM AND 11 AM SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA AND ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE, THOUGH A FEW OF THE MOST EXPOSED RIDGETOPS COULD STILL
EXPERIENCE A GUST OVER 40 MPH. AFTER THE WINDS BECOME GUSTY, SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A
STABILIZATION OF THE LOW LEVELS AND A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. ONCE
THE INITIAL SHOWERS DEPART--AROUND 9 AM FOR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND THE
BLUEGRASS, AND 1 PM IN THE FAR EAST--WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE. WITH THOSE RENEWED WINDS, THERE WILL ALSO BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO
THE 50S. SHOWERS DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH WINDS SLACKENING AND SKIES CLEARING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME OF
THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND ON THE BLUEGRASS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID-30S TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MONDAY, HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, AS BREIF RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN LIEU OF THE EXITING
WEEKEND SYSTEM, TO THE NORTHEAST. FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
BEYOND MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MATURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO A COLD FRONT
DEVELOPING LATER TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, OVER THE OHIO AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST MID-
LEVELS, WITH SOME DRYING AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS
COULD GUST 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE
LOW, ODDS ARE THIS WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT, DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH RIDGES STAYING IN THE LOWER
40S. PATCHY AREAS OF FROST COULD DEVELOP IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE ARE REMAINS IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. GUSTS 20-25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. AT NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S EACH NIGHT HAVE
THE FORMATION OF FROST BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEDNESDAY, AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS MODELED TO COME OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS DURING FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND IN THE MID 40S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
THE VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, A STRONG
JET MOVING IN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS OVERNIGHT. THOSE
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MORE READILY LATE
IN THE NIGHT AS VIRGA AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 25
TO 35 KT RANGE, STRONGEST NEAR/WEST OF I-75 AND NEAR/NORTH OF
I-64. THE WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH MID-TO-LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SATURATE AND
STABILIZE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SATURATION
WILL ALSO LEAD TO CEILING RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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