869
FXUS63 KJKL 191018
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
618 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
- FOLLOWING THE FRONT, EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECOND, BUT DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN SHELTERED VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A POTENT BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BRINGING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH MIXED LOCATIONS
UNUSUALLY MILD IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINED WITH THE DYNAMICS AT
PLAY, IT'S RESULTING IN A COMBINATION OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND
LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM. LIMITED MIXING IS
ALSO ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. IT'S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER
ANYONE ACTUALLY MAKES WIND ADVISORY CRITERION OF 40 MPH TODAY,
BUT THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO RIDE WITH A MENTION OF SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE CAPPED TOO LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AND
ONLY SHOWERS ARE BEING CARRIED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN
THESE WILL DIE OUT TONIGHT AFTER ENOUGH DRYING AND MID LEVEL
WARMING OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING BY DAWN FOR A BIT OF FROST
IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PASSING
THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL GIVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A
DECENT WARM-UP INTO THE 60S IN THE COOL AIR MASS.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS WILL HOLD RIDGES, OPEN TERRAIN AND WESTERN VALLEYS
MILDER. HOWEVER, EASTERN VALLEYS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE,
AND AGAIN LEAD TO A FROST POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WILL BRING WIND,
SHOWERS, AND A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
MORNING, WITH LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. BEFORE
THE WINDS PICK UP AT THE SURFACE, SOME PLACES MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ONCE WINDS PICK UP, GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO
30-35 KTS DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL
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