233
FXUS63 KJKL 191901
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS IT EXITS TO THE
EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
- FOLLOWING THE FRONT, EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SECOND, BUT DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN SHELTERED VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A COLD FRONT, EVIDENT BY THE WELL-DEFINED NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE
ON RADAR LATE THIS MORNING, STRETCHES FROM FLAT GAP THROUGH
BUCKHORN TO PINEVILLE AT 1140 AM. WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
GENERALLY GUSTED INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE IN THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT SETTLED ONCE THE LOW-LEVELS
SATURATED. GUSTS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN UNDER 30 MPH. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.
FURTHER UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM FRANKFORT TO
GLASGOW. THIS SECOND LINE, SUPPORTED BY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE
TO ONGOING CAA AS WELL AS INTENSE UPPER LEVEL FORCING, MAY
ACTUALLY HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY (UP TO ~250 J/KG OF
MLCAPE) TO WORK WITH THAN THE LEADING LINE OF CONVECTION NOW
CROSSING THE JKL CWA, THUS TOKEN THUNDER CHANCE HAS BEEN ADDED
BACK TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE PEAK WIND GUSTS
ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING DOWN
MORE INTENSE WINDS FROM ALOFT--SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
LATEST OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST, NOT RESULTING IN
ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES. HOWEVER, HAVE NOTED THAT THE 06Z RUN OF
THE NAM NOW SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER (WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH PARCELS RISING PAST -20C) THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. THERE
HAS BEEN THUNDER UPSTREAM WITH THIS FEATURE EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER SOUTHERN IL, WESTERN KY, AND SOUTHWEST IN. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED, AND DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO PUT A MENTION OF THUNDER BACK
INTO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A POTENT BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BRINGING WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH MIXED LOCATIONS
UNUSUALLY MILD IN THE LOWER 70S. COMBINED WITH THE DYNAMICS AT
PLAY, IT'S RESULTING IN A COMBINATION OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND
LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM. LIMITED MIXING IS
ALSO ALLOWING FOR GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. IT'S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER
ANYONE ACTUALLY MAKES WIND ADVISORY CRITERION OF 40 MPH TODAY,
BUT THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN LEFT TO RIDE WITH A MENTION OF SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE CAPPED TOO LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AND
ONLY SHOWERS ARE BEING CARRIED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN
THESE WILL DIE OUT TONIGHT AFTER ENOUGH DRYING AND MID LEVEL
WARMING OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING BY DAWN FOR A BIT OF FROST
IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PASSING
THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL GIVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A
DECENT WARM-UP INTO THE 60S IN THE COOL AIR MASS.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS WILL HOLD RIDGES, OPEN TERRAIN AND WESTERN VALLEYS
MILDER. HOWEVER, EASTERN VALLEYS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE,
AND AGAIN LEAD TO A FROST POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS FRONT, THIS ONE
WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. NEVER THE LESS, THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME, WITH A FROST
POTENTIAL OF VARYING EXTENT EACH NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS ONE IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF WHAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
EFFECTIVE AT PULLING IN MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH OUR HIGHEST POP WILL
PROBABLY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT, SPORADIC
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO BETWEEN TO 25 TO 35KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ALSO DIMINISHING. CEILINGS BREAK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHOWERS,
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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