101
FXUS63 KJKL 080120
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
820 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-75.
- THE COLDEST AIR MAS OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
- THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 820 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE JKL CWA. A FEW OF THE
CELLS ARE STRONG WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH
MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER. LOCATIONS WEST OF I-75
LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH THAT WINDOW
IS CLOSING QUICKLY. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE, AMID SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10
MPH (AWAY FROM STORMS), DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, AS WELL. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO FINE
TUNE THE POPS AND THUNDER THREATS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
PER THE RADAR AND CAMS GUIDANCE. DID ALSO INCLUDE THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 540 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO ENTER KY FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. MILD AND HUMID AIR (BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS) IS
STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALONG WITH
ASCENT FROM THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING
IN DECENT SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK. THE WARMEST
TEMP/DEW POINT AND GREATEST INSTABILITY IS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL. THAT AREA
HAS BEEN INCLUDED BY SPC AT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A TORNADO
WATCH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF. DRYING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
HOW EFFECTIVE THIS IS AT GROUND LEVEL AFTER OUR RAIN IS
QUESTIONABLE AS FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY WEAK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS) WHERE CLOUDS BREAK UP
SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE DAWN. THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES.
A QUIET DAY IS ON THE WAY FOR SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING
LACKING BEHIND THE FRONT, AND SUNSHINE RETURNING, IT WILL BE A
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS BY JUST NORTH OF KY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH A DEEPENING EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SEND A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE FRONT
POSSIBLY NOT CLEARED OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES YET BY DAWN ON
SUNDAY. WON'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND COLD FROPA,
BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
AS A COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MODELED TO
SPILL OUT OF THE PAC. NW DEEPENING INTO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY. WHILE STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WEST COAST, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES RE-ENFORCE COLD AIR WORKING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY, CANADA.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AS PART OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. DIURNAL SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
MORNING WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER-WHICH, COLD AIR IS RE-ENFORCED HEADING INTO THE LATER
AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT. P-TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT THE GRAND ENSEMBLE FOR SNOWFALL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THERE REMAINS A 40-60% CHANCE THE AREA RECEIVES UP TO
0.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF
SNOW REMAINS GREATEST (50-60% CHANCE) AROUND THE BLACK MOUNTAIN AREA
AND VICINITY IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BOARDER. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST WE'VE SEEN IN SOME
TIME, IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
BY MONDAY MORNING, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING, AS A 524-DM
LOW IS MODELED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS LOW PULLS TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY, IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING, LEADING TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS HEIGHT RISES RETURN TO THE AREA
UNDER QUASI-LINEAR FLOW. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (LIGHTER WINDS
BEYOND). TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S, BEFORE WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, REACHING 60 IN SOME SPOTS FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND LOW 40S FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AT 00Z ISSUANCE. WITH THIS, GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
HAVE TAKEN HOLD DUE TO VIS IN THE RAIN THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
VFR, SO FAR. DO EXPECT THEM TO FALL, TOO, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
IFR, AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT, BUT MVFR CEILINGS AND WILL PROBABLY PERSIST LONGER.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, WHERE CLOUDS BREAK UP THOROUGHLY, THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AND LAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR WINDS AWAY FROM ANY STORMS TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY, WEDNESDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
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