601
FXUS63 KJKL 081907
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
207 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
- THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
- WITH THE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000
FEET NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO HAVE
ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 121 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
REFRESHED GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. FRESHENED UP
SAFS TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FROM EARLIER TODAY. FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT, BUT MAY STILL REMAIN LOCALLY DENSE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO ONE HOUR IN THE
WORST AREAS. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A SHORTWAVE ROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MID
AND UPPER OH TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
HAVING MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW
WEST OF JAMES BAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WERE UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA, WITH ONE NEARING THE MID MS VALLEY AND ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DAKOTAS THAT WERE MOVING
AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDED NORTH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING. AT THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING
IS NOT LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TN TO LOWER OH VALLEY HAVING LEAD TO A DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SOME CLEARING. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOW STRATUS IN OTHER AREAS FOLLOWING RAINFALL
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. MANY OBSERVATIONS STATIONS WERE
REPORTING DENSE FOG WITH MANY KY MESONET AND KYTC CAMERAS ALSO
SUGGESTING DENSE FOG AS WELL. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR MORE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WAS EXPANDED SOUTHEAST
AS SKIES CLEARED NEARER TO THE TUG FORK AND VA BORDER AREAS. THIS
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LEADING TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD NEAR THE LOWER OH VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
DARK AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT TO
EARLY ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SHOULD TRACK TO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND REACH OH/MIDDLE OH
VALLEY AREA LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM TRAILING
SOUTH WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE CROSSING
EASTERN KY NEAR DAWN ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY ONCE FOG
LIFTS AND DISSIPATES WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE,
TEMPERATURE SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
PROBABLE THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR NEAR OR IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT.
A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWER CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE AND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES EASTERN KY AROUND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES INTO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE HEATING OF
THE DAY COMBINED WITH THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS,
SUCH AS BLACK MTN, 850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW 0C DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THERE BEFORE DARK ON SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PEAK BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS, GENERALLY IN THE
50S BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO THE LOW TO 40S BELOW 2000 FEET BEFORE
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE
30S WITH LOW 30S ABOVE 3500 FEET. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR ON TOP OF BLACK MTN BEFORE DARK ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
NBM 4.3 PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A ROCKCASTLE TO BELL COUNTY LINE NOW WITH PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDANCE VALUES OF 50 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT, HIGHEST IN THE BROAD
VICINITY OF THE BLACK MOUNTAIN AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. OF PARTICULAR NOTE, ALL MODELS DEPICT A PARTICULARLY STRONG
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LESSENING AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS SETS UP A SCENARIO WHERE THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY MORNING WITH
COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS, BUT TRANSITIONS TO A Q-G WARM ADVECTION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS ON THE
IMMEDIATE BACK END OF THE VORT MAX BEFORE SNOW ENDS MONDAY EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEXITY WITH THIS EVENT IS THAT THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WHERE THE STRONG VORT MAX CROSSES
EASTERN KENTUCKY, WHICH HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN WHERE THE PERIOD
OF STEADIER SNOW OCCURS. THE GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST SOUTH, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF MODELS IN BETWEEN BUT PERHAPS LEANING A BIT MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF. THUS, WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS IS INCREASING, THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT AREAS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS OF COURSE ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY NEAR/ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER, ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK
MOUNTAIN VICINITY, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW FALLING. ONE LAST ADDITIONAL COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS THAT THE PERIOD WILL BE ENTERING THE CAMS WINDOW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF FORECASTING CYCLES, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW
FORECASTERS TO FLESH OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS WITH THIS EVENT.
THE OTHER BIG STORY WHICH HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED AT THIS POINT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID-30S ACROSS THE AREA, A
FULL 25 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL AND LIKELY COLD ENOUGH FOR
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT BOTH JACKSON AND LONDON, SO THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S, WITH A FEW TEENS IN THE
COLDEST LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS
THE PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER, A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MS VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON AND JAMES BAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ON THE ORDER OF 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY WITH FURTHER MODERATION ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN KY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE MODERATE COMPARED TO THE LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK AIRMASS.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
PLAINS WHILE THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH IN CANADA MOVE EAST AND THE
AXIS OF THIS TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO END THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE DURING THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
PERIOD AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMALS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AND LOWER AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH REDUCTIONS TO AS LOW AS MVFR. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD 00Z, BUT SHOULD INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KT LATE AS THE FRONT NEARS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT PERHAPS GUSTING 15KTS
AFTER 13Z SUNDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC/JP
AVIATION...GINNICK/JP
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