593
FXUS63 KJKL 091843
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON ARRIVES LATER TODAY.
- THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY FROM ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
- WITH THE SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
REFRESHED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND ALSO USED
GFS1HR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NBM WAS TO SLOW WITH DROPPING OFF TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS. FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS UNCHANGED. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH OFF AND ON
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER SUNSET, AND ALL
SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONTINUING MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED USING A BLEND OF THE 1 HOUR NBM AND
A BLEND OF CAMS GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING EASTERN
KENTUCKY CURRENTLY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY
AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. OVERALL, OUTSIDE OF TWEAKS TO POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN ENLONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTEND FROM
NEAR JAMES BAY TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS/MS
VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MEANWHILE EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WHILE ANOTHER IS UPSTREAM OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY AND ADDITIONAL ROTATING INTO OR ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
IS TRACKING GENERALLY JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND IS OVER OH
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS NEARING EASTERN KY. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE
FRONT MOST OF THE RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NEAR OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN SHOWER CHANCES FROM MID MORNING TO
MIDDAY OR SO. HOWEVER, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THEN THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING AND THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY FOR MONDAY AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND LIKELY BE OVER
EASTERN KY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A HIGH THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY,
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TOP OF BLACK
MOUNTAIN SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ALL
OF THE REGION DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION, AS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN KY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE UPSLOPE. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FIRST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT, SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARD THE 20S, A
DUSTING TO A HALF OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ON GRASS
AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND IN PARTICULAR FOR LOCATIONS AT 1500
FEET ELEVATION AND ABOVE. ABOVE 2000 FEET, AN INCH OR MORE MAY
FALL TONIGHT. SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ON MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST, WITH COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY PEAKING AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NEARER TO AND
OVER THE AREA COMBINES WITH PEAK HEATING/PEAK SOLAR INSOLATION
RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. EVENT TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH EXTEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT OF AN INCH OR LESS
ARE FORECAST IN VALLEYS AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75, WHILE EVENT
TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS OF 1500 FEET AND
ABOVE. SOME OR ALL OF THIS SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY MAY PARTIALLY OR COMPLETELY MELT IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SNOW DEPTHS AT ANY POINT SHOULD BE LESS THAN EVENT
TOTALS. NEVERTHELESS, TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IF NOT FROM SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR ACCUMULATIONS
AND TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THIS EARLY SEASON EVENT FOR THE 4 VA BORDER
COUNTIES. IT IS POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT NEARS AND BECOMES MORE
ENTRENCHED IN CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND HREF GUIDANCE THAT
MORE COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND/OR NORTHWEST MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.
AT THIS POINT, AN SPS WAS ISSUED TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE
FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON AND ACCOMPANYING SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS
WILL ALSO BE ISSUED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS AN ACTIVE JET STREAM REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY MODERATE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY, BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME. ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR LIMITED TO THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSS THE AREA, ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS, MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z, ALONG WITH
INSTANCES OF IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS AROUND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 12G22KT OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BECOMING WEAKER AFTER 00Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK
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