155
FXUS63 KJKL 092147
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
447 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON ARRIVES LATER TODAY.
- THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY FROM ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
- WITH THE SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, LOCATIONS NEARER TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 447 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND
TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS CONUS, WITH A STRONG 588-
DM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US, AND A 528-DM TROUGH
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGH FOR THE DAY ALREADY OCCURRING EARLIER THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR FROM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA, TO UPPER 40S IN THE FAR EAST. AS SUNSET NEARS
RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING
OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, GENERALLY
ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED, AND THERE MAY
ALSO BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW FOR UP TO SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP SNOW DEPTHS MUCH
LOWER THAN ACTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FOR AREAS ALONG THE VA/KY AND
WV/KY BOARDER MAY SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THESE AREAS ARE
CURRENTLY IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY.
HIGHS MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S
BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY SOME
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THOSE
TRAVELING MONDAY EVENING SHOULD PLAN ON SLICK OR SLIPPERY ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR
ROADWAYS AT 1500 FEET ELEVATION OR ABOVE.
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SECONDARY WAVE MAY STILL SHIFT SOME. THIS
COULD EFFECT WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDING OF SNOW OCCURS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO RE-EVEALUATE AND EXPAND THE
ADVISORY IF THE HEAVIEST SNOWS SHIFT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS AN ACTIVE JET STREAM REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY MODERATE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY, BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME. ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR LIMITED TO THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSS THE AREA, ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS, MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW AFTER 00Z, ALONG WITH
INSTANCES OF IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS AROUND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 12G22KT OUT OF THE WEST BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BECOMING WEAKER AFTER 00Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
118-120.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK
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