815
FXUS63 KJKL 102002
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
302 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- THE FIRST SNOW THE EVENT OF THE SEASON WILL AFFECT THE REGION
INTO TONIGHT. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
- LOCATIONS AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE NEAR VA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE
SUSTAINED TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER, ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AREAWIDE.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY,
THEN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
A POWERFUL VORT MAX RESIDES OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NOT SURPRISINGLY, SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE
SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS HAVE
OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE WITH
MOST OTHER AREAS THE ROADS ARE STAYING JUST WET. A TRAILING WEAKER
VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN OHIO THROUGH WEST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY REPRESENT THE END OF ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING, WITH FLURRIES LINGERING IN
UPSLOPE AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVERALL IS FAIRLY
DRY, WHICH SHOULD MEAN FAIRLY DECENT EVAPORATION RATES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON ROADS. NEVERTHELESS, TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS TO
DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHO
OVERPERFORM WITH TODAY'S SNOW.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH A MOSTLY DRY DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA
WITHIN THE STILL ACTIVE JET STREAM IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME REPLACING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 40S TUESDAY, AND THEN FALL ONLY
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ADD MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
CONFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS AN ACTIVE JET STREAM REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY MODERATE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY, BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME. ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR LIMITED TO THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TIME FRAME WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
ALONG AND SOUTH OF JKL, SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ~00Z THIS EVENING
WILL RESULT IN SHARP REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN SOME ACTIVITY IN THE
STRONGEST SHOWER(S), WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DIPPING
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR UP TO A A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF JKL, A MORE
STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH MORE PERSISTENT REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AS 00Z
APPROACHES, IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR IN MORE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR NEAR THE VA BORDER THROUGH
AROUND 03Z AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS DEPARTS AND SNOW SHOWERS TAPER
TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AND THEN END IN MOST PLACES
TOWARD 06Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10KT
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25KT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TEND TO REMAIN NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FROM 00Z
TO 12Z, BUT DECREASE TO AROUND 5KT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106-108-111-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ085-
086-107-109-110-112-113-115>117-119.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
118-120.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...CMC
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