071
FXUS63 KJKL 112048
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OF EASTERN KY TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY, THEN
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB, AND THE MAX TEMP FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST
PLACES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
MORNING OBS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST WITHOUT ANY
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
UPSTATE NY VICINITY WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO FL.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AREA AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO
PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALSO EAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE PLAINS EAST TO THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AS
WELL AS OH VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS INCLUDING THE COMMONWEALTH. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WERE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW, ON
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES AND EXTENDED NORTH TO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS TO LAKE
MICHIGAN VICINITY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, WITH RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A TREND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT, NEARLY ALL LOW CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED EASTERN KY EXPECT FOR A FEW PATCHES NEAR THE KY/VA
BORDER AND NEAR THE TUG FORK. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET AND SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WERE
IN THE TEENS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, A GENERAL TREND OF HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE SHORTWAVE NOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS VICINITY SHOULD REACH THE OH VALLEY LATER TODAY
AND CROSS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A SFC SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MORE NORTHER SHORTWAVE IN
ONTARIO WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO MOVES TO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEHIND IT MOVES INTO ONTARIO.
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THE PASSING WARM FRONT AND THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO NOTHING MORE THAN THAN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. WITH THE AIRMASS MODERATING, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
GENERALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, OR 15 TO 20
DEGREE BELOW NORMAL. SOME DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST MAY MANAGE TO DECOUPLE AT LEAST AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
REACH THE UPPER 20S WITH MID 30S FOR RIDGES/MORE OPEN TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, LOWS TONIGHT WILL TREND MILDER AS WELL.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MORE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE INITIALLY OVER ONTARIO
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND WITH THE SFC LOW
REACHING QUEBEC WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
COMMONWEALTH. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 OR 25 ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH, OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR HIGHS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NOT MANY CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH IT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS THURSDAY MORNING WITH 500 HPA TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, THESE FEATURES MANIFEST AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHILE A
SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE
BUT EXTENDS ACROSS ADJACENT REGIONS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES
WHILE THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO A POSITION EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO HUDSON BAY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO A GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD SUBSIDENCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TO NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER BY 6Z SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HAVE CLOSED OFF
AND WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM WESTERN CANADA. MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW PASSING FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA EARLY SATURDAY TO THE VICINITY OF LABRADOR AND
NEWFOUNDLAND BY NEXT TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT SETTLING ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND
STALLING OUT, LEAVING A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED LOW WORKS EAST WITH TIME, LIKELY BECOMING AN OPEN
WAVE AGAIN, FOSTERING A NEW SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE LIMITED, KEEPING POPS LOW WITH ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
UNCERTAIN. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE DETAILS, TIMING, AMOUNTS, ETC.
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL.
DAILY HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY TO THE
MID-60S TO NEAR 70 BY SATURDAY. VALUES DROP OFF SOMEWHAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, STARTING IN
THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND MODERATING IN THE 50S BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE COOLING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD BE DRY; THERE ARE LOW RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BROAD-BRUSH CHANCES AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, AS SYSTEM TIMING REMAINS RATHER OBSCURE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS A LITTLE OFF THE SURFACE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FOR A TIME.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL
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