676
FXUS63 KJKL 072023
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CUMBERLAND
RIVER BASIN. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE FORECAST EAST OF US-23.
- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
- THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EACH PASSING SYSTEM'S
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS LIKELY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE PIEDMONT PLATEAU, EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS, EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
HOWEVER, MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE RAPIDLY TRACKING TOWARD
THE COMMONWEALTH. THE FIRST WEAK DISTURBANCE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TRAILING FROM THIS FEATURE IS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ATTACHED TO THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE CWA. A THIRD DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
OVER THE PINEY WOODS REGION OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
OUTSIDE OF THESE APPROACHING DISTURBANCES, THE REGION IS DOMINATED
BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY PERSIST;
HOWEVER, ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POP CHANCES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE
WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST ARE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS FEATURE.
THE BULK OF TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM THE
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES. THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 03Z.
WITH CAA EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL COOL RAPIDLY, CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO
A RAIN-SNOW MIX AND THEN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW BEFORE 08Z. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AND FORECAST
QPF VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. DUE TO
THIS COMBINATION, FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED FOR
MARTIN, FLOYD, PIKE, AND LETCHER COUNTIES. CONSEQUENTLY, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE NOW ANTICIPATED. AREAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY BUT LOCATED NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SOMERSET TO HARLAN ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT THESE ARE NOT FORECAST TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE, AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE LESSER THREATS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. AREAS NOT COVERED BY AN ADVISORY OR SPS WILL
PRIMARILY SEE RAIN TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF RAIN-SNOW MIX FROM THIS
PASSING FEATURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH. SUBSEQUENT UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL USHER IN
A RETURN OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS
FEATURING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CLOUD BREAKS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION, STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN-
SNOW MIX AND THEN SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THE RESULTANT REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE
WEATHER LOOKS QUITE BRIEF. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREATER OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN QUICK SUCCESSION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FIRST
SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THE RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL POSITION
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE FIRST SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR. THIS MAKES RAIN
THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE INITIAL MIDWEEK WAVE,
ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE-WEEK SYSTEMS. MODELS
SIGNAL THAT A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND, AND IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THIS PERIOD OF
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CULMINATE IN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR.
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON MONDAY NIGHT, A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS FAVORS CLEAR, CALM, AND SEASONABLY COOL SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS APPEAR POSSIBLE,
BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS POISED TO SEE LOWS IN THE 20S.
EXPECT RIDGETOP MINTS CLOSER TO 25 WHILE THE CONVENTIONAL COLD SPOTS
(THE SHELTERED AND SHADED VALLEYS OF NE KY) DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER
20S. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD TREND A LITTLE BIT COOLER IF THE SNOW
FROM THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD LINGERS AROUND FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE
PROPAGATED EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST, AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DEEPENS AND DIVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL KICK-START WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY MODERATE INTO
THE 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF THESE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARMER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S,
WITH ONLY THE TOP OF BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN LEFT BELOW FREEZING.
THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BOTH PERSIST AND
FURTHER STRENGTHEN. CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 KNOTS IS
INCREASING, BUT WINDS MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA (GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH). THE LATEST BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS OUT AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS A
SLIGHT DECREASE FROM THE BUFKIT GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY,
WHEN A FEW SITES HAD READINGS CLOSER TO 35 KNOTS. ALONG THESE LINES,
THE LATEST EPS PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESSIVE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS RUN. WHILE
THERE IS STILL A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLATED 40 MPH GUST,
THIS PARTICULARLY DATA SOURCE TENDS TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS.
NEVERTHELESS, WEDNESDAY'S WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE NUISANCE-TYPE
IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AND TEMPORARY STRUCTURES LIKE
TENTS. CONTINUED WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES POINT TOWARDS LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECOND CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AT SOME
POINT ON THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE GENERALLY LOOKS WEAKER THAN THE
FIRST ONE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME THERMAL RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IS REALIZED, BUT THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF IT TAKES A
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND/OR ITS ARRIVAL ALIGNS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WINTER WEATHER WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. THUS, THE
LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT
THIS TEMPORAL RANGE.
MODELS RESOLVE A THIRD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES STATES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH MUCH DEEPER TROUGHING
DIGGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALOFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS THE ADVECTION OF A MUCH COLDER, BUT DRIER
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE COLLECTIVELY DEPICTS 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING (0 DEGREES CELSIUS) ON FRIDAY AND THEN BELOW
NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS SNOW CHANCES
IN THE GRIDS ON FRIDAY, BUT THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS WILL COME
FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS
ARE POISED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND
BLUSTERY NW FLOW WILL ALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS JUST PLAIN COLD AS THE CANADIAN-SOURCED AIR
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE THE 20S ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES REINFORCE
THE NOTION THAT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THESE THREE LATE-WEEK SYSTEMS. THE CPC HAS OUTLINED MOST OF KENTUCKY
IN ITS DAYS 8-14 HAZARDS OUTLOOK FOR "MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES" ON DECEMBER 14TH AND 15TH, AND THE FIRST SUB ZERO
WIND CHILLS OF THE SEASON CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS TIME FRAME.
BRR.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. HOWEVER, A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT BRINGING INITIALLY RAIN THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN-SNOW MIX THEN ALL SNOW THROUGH 12Z.
TERMINALS KJKL AND KSJS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH KSME AND KLOZ BEING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS CLIPPER. KSYM WILL SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CATEGORY BUT NOT TO
THE EXTENT OF KJKL OR KSJS. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
CATEGORICAL MVFR AROUND 03Z AND IFR AROUND 06-07Z AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE TAF WINDOW.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ110-
118>120.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST
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