345
FXUS63 KJKL 080620
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
120 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY,
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN.
- THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED WEST AND NORTHWEST TO
INCLUDE THE I-64 AND MOUNTAIN PARKWAY CORRIDORS.
- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
- THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EACH PASSING SYSTEM'S
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS LIKELY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1125 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ABOVE 2000 FEET NEAR THE VA BORDER, SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER DURING THAT TIME AS WELL. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
TOWARD A GROWING CONSENSUS OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR AROUND 1 INCH OF
SNOW IF NOT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE INITIAL AREAL FOOTPRINT OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, THE ADVISORY
WAS EXPANDED WEST ACROSS KNOTT AND BREATHITT COUNTIES TO ESTILL
COUNTY AND NORTH. FOR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR IN PARTICULAR,
THERE WAS A GROWING CONCERN FOR IMPACTS DURING THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS HAD AN UPWARD TREND IN
THAT AREA OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THERE STILL IS SOME RUN TO
RUN VARIABILITY IN THE HRRR AND RAP, ETC., BUT THE INCOMING 0Z
GUIDANCE AND 00Z HREF LPMM SNOWFALL SUPPORT THE AREAL EXPANSION.
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS, DEWPOINTS, AND WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
HOURLY GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION TRENDS AT
THIS POINT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HAD HIGHER AMOUNTS
EITHER IN THE EXISTING ADVISORY OR INTO A FEW COUNTIES TO THE
NORTH OR WEST OF IT SUCH AS KNOTT, HARLAN, JOHNSON, AND MAGOFFIN,
ETC. SNOW RATIOS/ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A BIT LIMITED AT LEAST
INITIALLY BY THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EARLIER TODAY ALLOWING THE GROUND AND ROAD SURFACES TO
WARM AND CONSIDERING MODEL DEPTH FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED.
HIGH RESOLUTION AND UPCOMING 0Z GUIDANCE WILL BE EVALUATED FOR
ANY POSSIBLE NEED TO ADD TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SPS IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE PIEDMONT PLATEAU, EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS, EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
HOWEVER, MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE RAPIDLY TRACKING TOWARD
THE COMMONWEALTH. THE FIRST WEAK DISTURBANCE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. TRAILING FROM THIS FEATURE IS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ATTACHED TO THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE CWA. A THIRD DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED
OVER THE PINEY WOODS REGION OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
OUTSIDE OF THESE APPROACHING DISTURBANCES, THE REGION IS DOMINATED
BY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INITIALLY PERSIST;
HOWEVER, ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POP CHANCES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE
WAVE NEAR THE GULF COAST ARE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS FEATURE.
THE BULK OF TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM THE
COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES. THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 03Z.
WITH CAA EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL COOL RAPIDLY, CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO
A RAIN-SNOW MIX AND THEN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW BEFORE 08Z. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AND FORECAST
QPF VALUES HAVE INCREASED BY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. DUE TO
THIS COMBINATION, FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED FOR
MARTIN, FLOYD, PIKE, AND LETCHER COUNTIES. CONSEQUENTLY, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE NOW ANTICIPATED. AREAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY BUT LOCATED NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SOMERSET TO HARLAN ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT THESE ARE NOT FORECAST TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE, AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE LESSER THREATS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. AREAS NOT COVERED BY AN ADVISORY OR SPS WILL
PRIMARILY SEE RAIN TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF RAIN-SNOW MIX FROM THIS
PASSING FEATURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH. SUBSEQUENT UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL USHER IN
A RETURN OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS
FEATURING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CLOUD BREAKS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION, STARTING AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN-
SNOW MIX AND THEN SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
AT THE OPEN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM
WORKING INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY, AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING, IN THE MID 30S.
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE BLACK BEAR MOUNTAIN AREA WHICH IS FORECAST
TO DROP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 30.
BY DAY-BREAK WEDNESDAY, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET. AT CURRENT, THE LATEST 00Z DATA OF
THE ENS, A MEMBER OF THE LREF ENSEMBLE, CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A 25-
40% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (ABOVE 40
MPH FOR ANY DURATION). WHILE THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED SOME
FROM THE 12Z RUN, THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF
ABNORMALLY BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE
SHIFT OF TAILS METHODOLOGY USING THE ECMWF MODEL RUNS. IT HAS BEEN
NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THAT THE PARTICULAR DATA SOURCE OF THE
ENS DOES HAVE A HIGH BIAS AND TENDS TO OVERDUE WINDS. BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER HAD ALSO PREVIOUSLY SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND, WITH
FORECAST SITES SHOWING SURFACE WINDS BELOW OR NEAR 30 KTS. THIS HAS
SINCE CHANGED, AT LEAST IF LOOKING AT THE GFS (ANOTHER AGGRESSIVE
MODEL). THE GFS NOW HAS MOMENTUM TRANSFER WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 35 KTS AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREAS. AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY MORE OF THE CAM MODELS WILL BE
ABLE TO AID. THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST MOMENTUM TRANSFER
WINDS OF ROUGHLY 25 KTS. EITHER WAY, WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS
MODELED AT 925-MB, STRONG TO GUSTY WINDS ARE CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY. HAVE CURRENTLY LEFT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH FOR THE
AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE LIKELY TO BLOW ANY UNSECURED HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WAA SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OR RAIN SHOWERS EXITS EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH,
STARTING WITH FLEMING COUNTY. AS THE MORNING AND DAY CONTINUES A
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA HEADING SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
INCREASE CHANCES AND COVERAGE, THOUGH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AT NIGHT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY EVENING, WINDS
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. TAKING A MOMENT
TO STEP BACK AND LOOK AT THE OVERALL PATTERN, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT A SOMEWHAT STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN US COAST. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IS THAT A SERIES OF CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS WILL "SPILL" OVER THIS RIDGE OVER THE LATER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM DOES JUST THAT FOR THURSDAY. AT
CURRENT, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. IF IT TAKES
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, SOUTH OF THE STATE, WINTERY PRECIP MAY BE
FAVORED. RIGHT NOW A MIX OR DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES IS IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF TRACK AND AVAILABLE COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THURSDAY WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM STARTS TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE
OUT WEST, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IS MODELED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC. WHILE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOBARIC PACKING, THERE
CURRENTLY DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE'S ANY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OR
INDICATIONS OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SO
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION DETAILS FOR THE FRIDAY TYPE SYSTEM AND
IMPACTS REMAINS A CHALLENGE. WHAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE
IS THE PRESENCE OF NEAR RECORD BRAKING COLD AIR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
BE WITHIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES OF THEIR ESTABLISHED RECORD LOWS, WHICH
CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND LOOK TO BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
COLD AIR REMAINS IN THE PLACE SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING
IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AT CURRENT, MODELS SHOW THE AREA
BRIEFLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS BEFORE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
ARRIVES SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
PRIMARILY VFR WAS REPORTED AT ISSUANCE TIME ACROSS EASTERN KY
THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS ARE ENCROACHING ON LOCATIONS WEST OF I-75
AND NORTH OF I-64 BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE INITIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW.
TERMINALS KJKL, KSJS, AND KSYM ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF SNOW WHILE KSME AND KLOZ WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE.
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO IFR OR WORSE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z. FROM 12Z TO 18Z SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KSYM, KLOZ, AND KSME AND EVENTUALLY KJKL AND
KSJS BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE
DAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-088-104-106>113-118>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-088-104-106>109-111>113.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page