143
FXUS63 KJKL 082147
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
447 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER THE LAST OF THE SNOW EXITS EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY.
- THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EACH PASSING SYSTEM'S
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
LIKELY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425| PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
REMAINING SNOW IS QUICKLY WINDING DOWN LATE TODAY AS THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES EAST OF OUR AREA
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD WELL OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH IS
SENDING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KY, BUT THE INFLUX WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HIGH SLIPS AWAY TO THE EAST. THE CLEARING
LINE HAS BEEN MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH WITH THE DRIER AIR,
REACH NEAR THE OH/KY BORDER AS OF LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS WANT TO
BRING THE CLEARING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JKL
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO
ERODE LOW STRATUS IN RECENT WEEKS. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CLEARING
FROM WHAT MODELS MIGHT SUGGEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE SKY
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT MEAGER. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO BREAK UP AT
LEAST IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST, THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF WELL IN
VALLEYS IN LIGHT OF THE FRESH SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONCE
AGAIN, IT WILL BE STATED THAT IT DEPENDS ON A QUESTIONABLE SKY
FORECAST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR
NORTH ON TUESDAY WILL SET UP A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AGAINST THE SURFACE HIGH HAVING PASSED TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION ON INCREASING BREEZES. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND, THIS SHOULD GET RID
OF ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS, BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING WILL CUT
INTO THE AMOUNT OF SUN TO BE SEEN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH A MEAN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STILL INCREASING GRADIENT AND EVENTUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO COOL OFF
MUCH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM NIGHTS WITH LOW CLOUDS, OUR
EASTERN VALLEYS ALMOST ALWAYS FIND A WAY TO DECOUPLE AND SEE
TEMPERATURE DROPS. COOLER LOWS HAVE BEEN FORECAST THERE, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON VALLEY TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT IS ALSO NOT
VERY HIGH. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY THICKEN UP, AND PRECIP IN THE
SYSTEM'S WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME COULD BE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND DAWN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
BROADER TROUGHING, WITH EMBEDDED PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS,
WILL BE THE STORY ALOFT GENERALLY EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE FRONT
END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD REGARDING
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN, TIMING OF THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AND
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING TO PREDICT
WITH CONFIDENCE. AS SUCH, HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DID MAKE SOME MINOR
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR A FEW PERIODS, MAINLY TO INCORPORATE
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES, AS WELL AS TO PLAY UP MORE
DIURNALLY-LIMITED TEMPERATURE REGIMES, WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS A BIT
HIGHER REGARDING THE CLOUDIER AND COLDER SPELLS.
WE START OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE 12Z ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE COME DOWN JUST A BIT
FOR SEEING 40 MPH GUSTS ON THE GFS COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN. AS
SUCH, HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
STICKING WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE BLENDED GUIDANCE FROM LATER IN
THE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WHEN WIND GUSTS
WILL PEAK IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MAINLY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LINGERING IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY FAVORING LOCATIONS EAST OF I-75. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPES GENERALIZED TO RAIN AND/OR
SNOW, AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE. A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE TEENS LOOK PROBABLE FOR MOST VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. HIGHS WILL
RETREAT TO THE 30S THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE RECOVERING ABOVE 40 BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SNOW WAS ONGOING OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WERE IFR OR WORSE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WAS
FALLING. WEST OF THE SNOW, CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR DUE MAINLY
TO CEILINGS.
AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD RETURN TO AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR MAY LINGER.
CEILINGS MAY ALSO TRY TO START BREAKING UP FROM THE NORTH LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THIS HAPPENS AND HOW FAR
IT PROGRESSES IS LOW. ONSET OF VFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED A LOOSE ESTIMATE, WITH REALITY LIKELY VARYING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ104-
106-107-109-113.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ110-
118>120.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...HAL
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