478
FXUS63 KJKL 091933
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
233 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY.
- SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SPATIALLY VARIABLE
ACCUMULATIONS AND LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT AND
WIND PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO REPORT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
UPDATED THE FORECAST BY INCORPORATING THE LATEST WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE AREA. HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINTS HAD THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
TEMPERATURES VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE SKIES HAVE
REMAINED CLEAR TO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FARTHER SOUTH WHERE A
LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN PERSISTENT. A GLANCE AT THE SURFACE MAP
REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TRACING
SOUTHWARD TO OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THEN WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK ~1007 MB SURFACE LOW
IS NOTED NEAR DULUTH, MN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A MUCH STRONGER ~990 MB SURFACE
CLIPPER LOW IS NOTED OVER ALBERTA. THE LATEST 500 HPA WEATHER MAP
SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES UNDER A BROAD TROUGH.
AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS NOTED NEAR DULUTH, MN, WHILE ANOTHER
VORTICITY MAX IS NOTED OVER WESTERN CANADA (NEAR THE CLIPPER LOW).
THE WARM FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD TODAY, CROSSING EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A ROBUST
~30 KT 925 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING, THE MIXING LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR MIXED LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES OF 15 TO 25
KTS ACROSS THE AREA, A GOOD PROXY FOR PEAK SURFACE WIND GUSTS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY TIGHTEN MORE TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLIPPER INITIALLY OVER ALBERTA RACES SOUTHEAST TO OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHILE DEEPENING TO ~980 MB OR LOWER. THIS
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY KEEP MIXING GOING OVERNIGHT (OR REENGAGE
MIXING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IF BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING IS ABLE
TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCALES). ANTICIPATE
THAT WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED-LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASING TO 25-35+
KTS WITH HEATING. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPEAR
PROBABLE ON WEDNESDAY; THE FIRST IS A ROUND OF SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING TO MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
VORTICITY LOBE WITHIN THE 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS. THE SECOND ROUND,
MORE LIKELY TO MIX WITH SNOW, COMES DURING THE EVENING WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND THE CLIPPER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BRIEF GRAUPEL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS,
ALTHOUGH A SWITCH TO ALL SNOW CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE QUICKLY MOVING COLD FRONT.
STRONG CAA FOLLOWS HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG-TERM.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A COOL START OF THE DAY
YIELDING TO INCREASING SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WHILE THE SOUTHWEST BREEZE PICKS UP
AND BECOMES GUSTY (15 TO 25 MPH GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST). FOR
TONIGHT, THE BREEZE REMAINS GUSTY AND MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN IN
MORE EXPOSED LOCALES. TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BACK INTO THE 30S FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING BUT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY RISE BACK TO NEAR OR
EVEN WELL INTO THE 40S. ON WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BECOME WINDY WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH GRAUPEL AND EVEN
SOME FLAKES. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE PROBABLE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCALES, MOST
WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN
THE MID 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH BEFORE DROPPING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN
SEABOARD MOVING QUICKLY OUT TO SEA, WITH COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGHS ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH THE COLUMN
WILL BE WARMING AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA, PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVERRUNNING A
SUFFICIENTLY COLD ATMOSPHERE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO FALL, WITH THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS AND THUS IMPACTS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY, WHERE MOST AREAS COULD SEE AROUND 1 INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION, WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR 2 INCHES TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AS THE EVENT
PROGRESSES, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
30S ESPECIALLY AS, AND/OR SHORTLY AFTER, PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
A MILDER AIR MASS THEN PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S. HOWEVER, ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CHANGING TO SNOW
CHANCES AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS, WITH SOME OF THE
COLDEST CONDITIONS OF THE WINTER POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN DEVELOP.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO END THE LONG-TERM PERIOD NEXT MONDAY,
WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY WARM
ADVECTION BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS (AND
PERHAPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES) WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR/WEST OF I-75 AND NEAR/NORTH OF
I-64. WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE'S ALSO A LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, LEADING TO THE THREAT OF LLWS FOR MOST
OF TONIGHT. AROUND 12Z A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
PRODUCING RAIN FOR MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 13-18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS, THOUGH THE THREAT
OF LLWS DIMINISHES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK
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