385
FXUS63 KJKL 101750
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1250 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH ARE LIKELY
TODAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CAVE RUN LAKE AND LAKE CUMBERLAND AREAS.
- SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SPATIALLY VARIABLE
ACCUMULATIONS AND LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS ON TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AND IMPACT
WILL BE ABOVE 1,500 FEET ASL WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
REFRESHED THE FORECAST WITH LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS. AS RAIN
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE AREA CAN SEE A MORE RAPID DROP OFF
IN TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 827 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
QUICK UPDATE INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA, KEEPING
THE TEMPERATURE CURVE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH CURRENT TRENDS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE APPROACH OF AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER, TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE ONSET OF
THE FORECAST, THIS SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE TRAVERSING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ANALYSIS OF FORECAST WIND PATTERNS AND ISOTHERMS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND AS
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXHIBIT STRONG CONSENSUS REGARDING THIS SYSTEMS
TRAJECTORY ACROSS MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY BEFORE ITS EVENTUAL
NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THIS
PATH, THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE BISECTED BY THE CRUCIAL
540 DAM CRITICAL THICKNESS LINE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE LOCATION OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS SUBJECT TO SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL SHIFTS WITH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES, THE OVERALL TREND INDICATES A NORTH-TO-
SOUTH SPLIT IN P-TYPES ACROSS THE CWA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ACCUMULATING SNOW, WHILE A WINTRY MIX IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FREEZING LINE, TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. PROVIDING EXACT ACCUMULATION VALUES FOR THE
NORTHERN CWA IS PREMATURE; HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO ADDRESS THE SNOW HAZARD.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS CONSISTENCY REGARDING A SUBSEQUENT CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, REACHING THE CWAS VICINITY BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE FOR THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS GENERALLY
MORE NORTHERLY, SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE CWA, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. NONETHELESS, ISOLATED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
SUCCEEDING WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, PRECEDING THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN SUMMARY, THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE PASSAGE OF TWO
DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEMS, ONE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
THE SECOND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO
BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, DRIVING COLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
AND MID-TEENS. A NOTABLE WARMUP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO COMMENCE BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO SPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE VA/KY BORDER AND CEILINGS
HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR. RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AND A BRIEF SQUALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BREIF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SNOW SQUALL TYPE BANDS THIS
EVENING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ051-052-
060-079-080-083-084-106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ086-087-110-113-115>117-120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ088-118.
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK
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