151
FXUS63 KJKL 120424
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1124 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AND
IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MONTGOMERY AND BATH COUNTIES,
WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.
- ANOTHER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVES
INTO OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
THE LATEST CAMS AND PARTIALLY LOADED 00Z HREF INDICATE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HAZARD STATEMENTS, AS THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE JUST GETTING
INGESTED. NEVERTHELESS, THE EXPECTED IMPACTS HAVE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED.
BASED ON UPSTREAM ADVISORY ISSUANCE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY,
WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BORDERING TENNESSEE THAT DID NOT PREVIOUSLY HAVE AN ADVISORY IN
EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES, AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS EVENING, A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. AT CURRENT, LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAS
SHOWN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE LOWS PLACEMENT. GUIDANCE HAS
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS, AND SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL START ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS 7-8 PM WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA EAST OF I-75 SEEING SNOW START AFTER 9-10 PM, AND 10-11 PM FOR
MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES. HAZARDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN GUIDANCE.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAIN IN PLAY. FOR EXAMPLE
THE BEST FORCING (WHERE OMEGA IS STRONGEST) APPEARS TO OCCUR ABOVE
OR NOT ENTIRELY WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) WHICH COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN MITIGATING SNOW-RATIOS. OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT IN
THE DGZ LAYER, WINDS ARE STRONG, 50-60 MPH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
FRAGMENTED DENDRITES, THUS YIELDING LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS. THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WILL MAINLY BE PRODUCING
SNOWS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE MOST AT RISK OF UNDER-PERFORMING WHERE A WARM NOSE LAYER
COULD SET UP HEADING INTO MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM PRESENT
TEMPERATURES, IN THE UPPER 20S, BEFORE RISING BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S BY DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT,
STARTING OUT SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE VEERING THROUGH THE DAY TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND IN THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. FRIDAY
EVENING SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
WHICH MAY SOUND WARM COMPARED TO THE UPCOMING DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 543 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
AMPLIFIED FLOW DOMINATES THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A ZONAL
FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY, WITH BROAD AND TIGHT
CYCLONIC FLOW FANNED SOUTHWARD AND SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PROGRESSIVE LOW WILL SPIRAL EAST,
REACHING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND BARRELING
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY
OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE
A MORE LIMITED WINDOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE, AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THESE ARCTIC SYSTEM TYPES, BUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS EAST OF I-75 LOOKS POSSIBLE, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES CLOSER
TO THE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS, CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF
THE CORE OF THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY, BEFORE PLUMMETING INTO MAINLY
THE TEENS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS COULD OCCUR NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
READINGS WILL ONLY WARM A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ON SUNDAY,
MAINLY REMAINING IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MORE
DECISIVELY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS CALM, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITHIN DEEPER
HOLLOWS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE. WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY, WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH OF I-64, TO THE MID 30S NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. DID
UNDERCUT THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR VALLEYS LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT,
AS LINGERING SNOWPACK AND RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER GOOD
DROP OFF. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIDDLE TEENS IN THESE LOCATIONS, BUT
SINGLE DIGITS MAY WIND UP BEING CLOSER TO REALITY.
A WARMUP IS IN STORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENSUES, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER HOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ENSUES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE FROM THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY, TO
WIDESPREAD 50S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
A MIX OF VFR, LOW-VFR, AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE INTO IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS (BOTH CIGS AND VIZ) FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS SNOW DEVELOPS ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
WARM FRONT ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA,
INCLUDING JKL, SJS, AND SYM. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHTEST
AND OF SHORTEST DURATION NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND HEAVIEST AND
PERSISTENT NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH WITH THE PASSING
WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY, LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND, WILL
LIKELY KEEP SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FOG.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ050-051.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC
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