570
FXUS63 KJKL 120816
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
316 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AND
IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS (FRIDAY) MORNING. A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MONTGOMERY AND BATH
COUNTIES, WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
- ANOTHER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVES
INTO OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
THE LATEST CAMS AND PARTIALLY LOADED 00Z HREF INDICATE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HAZARD STATEMENTS, AS THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE JUST GETTING
INGESTED. NEVERTHELESS, THE EXPECTED IMPACTS HAVE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED.
BASED ON UPSTREAM ADVISORY ISSUANCE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY,
WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BORDERING TENNESSEE THAT DID NOT PREVIOUSLY HAVE AN ADVISORY IN
EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES, AND
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS EVENING, A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY, BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. AT CURRENT, LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAS
SHOWN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE LOWS PLACEMENT. GUIDANCE HAS
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS, AND SNOW TOTALS HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL START ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS 7-8 PM WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA EAST OF I-75 SEEING SNOW START AFTER 9-10 PM, AND 10-11 PM FOR
MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES. HAZARDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN GUIDANCE.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAIN IN PLAY. FOR EXAMPLE
THE BEST FORCING (WHERE OMEGA IS STRONGEST) APPEARS TO OCCUR ABOVE
OR NOT ENTIRELY WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) WHICH COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN MITIGATING SNOW-RATIOS. OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT IN
THE DGZ LAYER, WINDS ARE STRONG, 50-60 MPH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
FRAGMENTED DENDRITES, THUS YIELDING LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS. THIS
SYSTEM IS LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WILL MAINLY BE PRODUCING
SNOWS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE MOST AT RISK OF UNDER-PERFORMING WHERE A WARM NOSE LAYER
COULD SET UP HEADING INTO MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE WILL ONLY FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM PRESENT
TEMPERATURES, IN THE UPPER 20S, BEFORE RISING BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S BY DAYBREAK.
FRIDAY, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT,
STARTING OUT SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE VEERING THROUGH THE DAY TO WESTERLY
AND NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW PASSING
EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND IN THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. FRIDAY
EVENING SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
WHICH MAY SOUND WARM COMPARED TO THE UPCOMING DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE THIRD AND
FINAL ALBERTA CLIPPER THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS, SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED WITH RESPECT TO THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF THIS
RAPIDLY PROPAGATING FEATURE. AS THIS SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, THE POP WILL INCREASE, BUT THE NORTHERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW-PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS CONSISTENT. THIS TRACK
IS FAVORABLE FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA, MAINLY FOCUSING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SUBTLE, WITH MINOR NORTH-SOUTH OSCILLATIONS IN
THE TRACK EVIDENT IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS. SUCH SMALL-SCALE TRACK
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD HAVE NOTABLE IMPLICATIONS FOR PROJECTED SNOWFALL
TOTALS, THE PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE, AND THE
DISTRIBUTION OF FROZEN VERSUS LIQUID PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS, THE
GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OUTSIDE AND NORTH
OF THE CWA. WITHIN THE CWA, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MET FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM POWELL TO PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LINGERING STRATIFORM SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST EMPHASIS SHIFTS RAPIDLY
TO THE ARRIVAL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SYNOPTICALLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW-
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CORRESPONDINGLY, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL FACILITATE THE CAA OF THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE SUCCEEDING WEEK. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS
FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA TO THE MID-20S
FAHRENHEIT NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING PERIOD. THE CONFLUENCE OF FACTORS
INCLUDING SUSTAINED CAA, RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES, AND
RESIDUAL SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FAHRENHEIT (PRIMARILY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION
AND SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS) TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS FAHRENHEIT
ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING MONDAY, WHICH WILL INDUCE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREDOMINANTLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO TROUGH AMPLIFICATION COMMENCING THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS RAPIDLY OFF THE ROCKIES AND QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING POP THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME STRONG, WITH LREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATING A WIDESPREAD 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MILES PER HOUR (MPH) IN ADVANCE OF THURSDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN SUMMATION, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, DRIVING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS AND MID-TEENS FAHRENHEIT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY, BUT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEK, BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SNOW PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME, STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, INCLUDING JKL, SJS, AND SYM. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF SHORTER DURATION NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND,
WHERE SNOW WILL HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY 12Z AT SME AND LOZ. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES
NORTH WITH THE PASSING WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
FRIDAY, LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY WITH SNOW
ON THE GROUND, WILL LIKELY SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FOG
OR HAZE.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ050-051.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
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