216
FXUS63 KJKL 121808 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
108 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AND AT 10 AM EST, SNOW WAS
LINGERING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THERE, BUT EVEN THAT ACTIVITY IS
ENDING NOW. THAT EXTENDED ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ENDED EARLY.
OTHER THAN RELATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
DID ALSO TOUCH UP THE POPS PER THE CURRENT RADAR AND CAMS
GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WARM FRONT TO SET UP
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ACT AS A GUIDE FOR SNOWFALL LAST NIGHT
AND INTO THIS MORNING. THE SNOW IS CURRENTLY TARGETING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE JKL CWA, THOUGH ANOTHER LESS INTENSE BAND
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, UNDER CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S - A TAD WARMER CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST PLACES. WEB CAMS AROUND THE
AREA SHOW PLENTY OF MAINLY WET ROADS WITH SOME SNOW COVERED ONES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THE STEADIER SNOWS HAVE OCCURRED -
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN ACTIVE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH PARKED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS IS KEEPING
KENTUCKY IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS AS A SERIES OF
IMPULSES PASS BY. THE LATEST ONE PUSHES THROUGH OHIO THIS MORNING
BRINGING BRIEF HEIGHT FALLS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, BY
EVENING, 5H HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE REBOUND IN ITS WAKE WHILE
ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SETS UP NORTH OF WISCONSIN. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE ONE EVERYONE REMEMBERS MOST THIS
DECEMBER FOR THE COLD AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS LATER THIS WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME, THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WINDS UP AND SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MITT OF MICHIGAN BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH THIS PIVOT
MAKING IT POISED TO DIVE SOUTH WITH A VENGEANCE. MEANWHILE, IN A
VERY TIGHT 5H HEIGHT GRADIENT, THE NEXT IMPULSE CHARGES TOWARD
THE OHIO RIVER. THE PRETTY SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED
USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY TO INCLUDE COOLER HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FROM THE CONSSHORT TODAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE SNOWFALL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES THE SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA - LINGERING LONGEST
IN THE FAR EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE
FRESH SNOW FOR THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER CHILLY
THROUGH THE DAY - COLDEST NORTH AND MILDER IN THE SOUTH WHERE A
REBOUND INTO THE LOW 40S ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE SNOWFALL BEHIND US
TONIGHT, EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH BUT STILL A BIT
CHILLY ON ACCOUNT OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WAA OVER THE SNOW
MAY ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, THOUGH COOLER
AIR HOLDS ON IN THE NORTH. TOWARDS EVENING, SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT POTENT WAVE APPROACHING - BUT THE BULK
OF ANY SNOW FALL WILL OCCUR THAT NIGHT.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
DAMPENING THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE VIA THE CONSSHORT TODAY DUE TO
THE SNOW COVER. DID ALSO INCLUDE SOME THE CAMS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
IN THE NEAR TERM TO CATCH THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
TRENDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE THIRD AND
FINAL ALBERTA CLIPPER THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS, SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED WITH RESPECT TO THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF THIS
RAPIDLY PROPAGATING FEATURE. AS THIS SYSTEM TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, THE POP WILL INCREASE, BUT THE NORTHERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW-PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS CONSISTENT. THIS TRACK
IS FAVORABLE FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA, MAINLY FOCUSING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SUBTLE, WITH MINOR NORTH-SOUTH OSCILLATIONS IN
THE TRACK EVIDENT IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS. SUCH SMALL-SCALE TRACK
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD HAVE NOTABLE IMPLICATIONS FOR PROJECTED SNOWFALL
TOTALS, THE PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE, AND THE
DISTRIBUTION OF FROZEN VERSUS LIQUID PRECIPITATION. NONETHELESS, THE
GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OUTSIDE AND NORTH
OF THE CWA. WITHIN THE CWA, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MET FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM POWELL TO PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
LINGERING STRATIFORM SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST EMPHASIS SHIFTS RAPIDLY
TO THE ARRIVAL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SYNOPTICALLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW-
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CORRESPONDINGLY, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL FACILITATE THE CAA OF THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE SUCCEEDING WEEK. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS
FAHRENHEIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA TO THE MID-20S
FAHRENHEIT NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING PERIOD. THE CONFLUENCE OF FACTORS
INCLUDING SUSTAINED CAA, RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES, AND
RESIDUAL SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FAHRENHEIT (PRIMARILY IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION
AND SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS) TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS FAHRENHEIT
ELSEWHERE. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING MONDAY, WHICH WILL INDUCE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREDOMINANTLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO TROUGH AMPLIFICATION COMMENCING THURSDAY MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS RAPIDLY OFF THE ROCKIES AND QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING POP THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME STRONG, WITH LREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATING A WIDESPREAD 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MILES PER HOUR (MPH) IN ADVANCE OF THURSDAYS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN SUMMATION, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, DRIVING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS AND MID-TEENS FAHRENHEIT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY, BUT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEK, BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
LOW AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE SNOW LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. VFR WAS REPORTED
AT ISSUANCE TIME IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCLUDING
NEAR KJKL, KLOZ, AND KSME WITH MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR IN THE MORE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS INCLUDING KSYM AND KSJS. GUIDANCE
LINGERS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AFTER THE
IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST THAT MAY
SPREAD TOWARD KSJS, A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN CATEGORIES IS
EXPECTED BY THE 20Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME INTO THE MORE SOUTHWESTERN
LOCATIONS FIRST THROUGH THE MVFR RANGES AND EVENTUALLY IFR 03Z TO
09Z. THE MORE SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS MAY IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, KSYM SHOULD EXPERIENCE
PREVAILING IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page