811
FXUS63 KJKL 122059
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AND AT 10 AM EST, SNOW WAS
LINGERING IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THERE, BUT EVEN THAT ACTIVITY IS
ENDING NOW. THAT EXTENDED ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ENDED EARLY.
OTHER THAN RELATED ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
DID ALSO TOUCH UP THE POPS PER THE CURRENT RADAR AND CAMS
GUIDANCE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WARM FRONT TO SET UP
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND ACT AS A GUIDE FOR SNOWFALL LAST NIGHT
AND INTO THIS MORNING. THE SNOW IS CURRENTLY TARGETING THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE JKL CWA, THOUGH ANOTHER LESS INTENSE BAND
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, UNDER CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S - A TAD WARMER CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE
RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST PLACES. WEB CAMS AROUND THE
AREA SHOW PLENTY OF MAINLY WET ROADS WITH SOME SNOW COVERED ONES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE THE STEADIER SNOWS HAVE OCCURRED -
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN ACTIVE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH PARKED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS IS KEEPING
KENTUCKY IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS AS A SERIES OF
IMPULSES PASS BY. THE LATEST ONE PUSHES THROUGH OHIO THIS MORNING
BRINGING BRIEF HEIGHT FALLS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, BY
EVENING, 5H HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE REBOUND IN ITS WAKE WHILE
ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SETS UP NORTH OF WISCONSIN. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE ONE EVERYONE REMEMBERS MOST THIS
DECEMBER FOR THE COLD AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS LATER THIS WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME, THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WINDS UP AND SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MITT OF MICHIGAN BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH THIS PIVOT
MAKING IT POISED TO DIVE SOUTH WITH A VENGEANCE. MEANWHILE, IN A
VERY TIGHT 5H HEIGHT GRADIENT, THE NEXT IMPULSE CHARGES TOWARD
THE OHIO RIVER. THE PRETTY SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED
USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY TO INCLUDE COOLER HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FROM THE CONSSHORT TODAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE SNOWFALL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES THE SNOW WINDING DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA - LINGERING LONGEST
IN THE FAR EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE
FRESH SNOW FOR THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER CHILLY
THROUGH THE DAY - COLDEST NORTH AND MILDER IN THE SOUTH WHERE A
REBOUND INTO THE LOW 40S ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE SNOWFALL BEHIND US
TONIGHT, EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH BUT STILL A BIT
CHILLY ON ACCOUNT OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WAA OVER THE SNOW
MAY ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, THOUGH COOLER
AIR HOLDS ON IN THE NORTH. TOWARDS EVENING, SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT POTENT WAVE APPROACHING - BUT THE BULK
OF ANY SNOW FALL WILL OCCUR THAT NIGHT.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
DAMPENING THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE VIA THE CONSSHORT TODAY DUE TO
THE SNOW COVER. DID ALSO INCLUDE SOME THE CAMS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
IN THE NEAR TERM TO CATCH THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
TRENDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SUNDAY OPENS WITH A DEEP 510-DM LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS BACK WEST-
SOUTHWEST, WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US, BACK THROUGH THE
APPALACHIAN, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY MORNING,
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MIGHT REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY, WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR. MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR, WITH LOW TEENS IN SOUTH.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILL), WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH COLDEST VALUES AROUND AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL FEEL AS COLD AS 5
BELOW ZERO.
COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO BE RE-ENFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM,
ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS-KY-80
PARKWAY, AND LOW TO MID 20S IN AREAS SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST, 5-10 MPH, WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FEEL LIKE THEY'RE 10-15 DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW
30S NEAR THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY, AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF THE HAL-
ROGERS/KY-80 PARKWAY. MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
UNDER SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH THE
BETTER PART OF WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY, HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A TROUGH
AMPLIFIES HEADING INTO THURSDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN POP
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. P-TYPE LOOKS LIKELY TO BE RAIN AT THIS
TIME. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY, BUT THE OVERALL TREND LOOKS LIKE RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF EARLY AS THE THURSDAY SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
LOW AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FOLLOWING THE SNOW LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. VFR WAS REPORTED
AT ISSUANCE TIME IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCLUDING
NEAR KJKL, KLOZ, AND KSME WITH MVFR AND EVEN SOME IFR IN THE MORE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS INCLUDING KSYM AND KSJS. GUIDANCE
LINGERS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AFTER THE
IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE SOUTHWEST THAT MAY
SPREAD TOWARD KSJS, A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN CATEGORIES IS
EXPECTED BY THE 20Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME INTO THE MORE SOUTHWESTERN
LOCATIONS FIRST THROUGH THE MVFR RANGES AND EVENTUALLY IFR 03Z TO
09Z. THE MORE SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS MAY IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, KSYM SHOULD EXPERIENCE
PREVAILING IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR KYZ106>110-112-113-115-118>120.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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