455
FXUS63 KJKL 132036
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER LIGHT, TO POSSIBLY MODERATE, SNOWFALL IS ON ITS WAY FOR
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
STANTON TO JACKSON TO WHITESBURG LINE.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE.
- NEARER TO, IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. SOME CLEARING OR SCATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS
HAS OCCURRED IN THE SOUTH WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE HOLDING ON FURTHER
NORTH. THAT TREND SHOULD HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE UPCOMING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE
REGION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN FRINGE
OF. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR REMAIN
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SNOWFALL WITH THAT SYSTEM THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY ON SUNDAY WHILE. THE RECENT RAP RUNS AND NAMNEST ARE
GENERALLY A BIT HIGHER AS ARE THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER, SOME SNOW EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE ADVISORY AREA COMBINED WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED EVEN IF TOTALS END UP ONLY
MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF
THE ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
WATCHING THE AREA WEB AND TRAFFIC CAMS THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNS
OF IMPROVEMENT TO THE DENSE FREEZING FOG SITUATION. WILL KEEP
MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE TEMPORAL EXTENSION TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE, HAVE INCLUDED THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE
ZONES AND SAFS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF KENTUCKY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD/ARCTIC FRONT OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. AHEAD OF THIS IMPACTFUL BOUNDARY, EARLIER
CLEAR SKIES AND THE RECENT SNOW ALLOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND A
LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY NEARLY TO THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. WITH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THAT AREA AT 32 DEGREES OR
LESS THIS HAS RESULTED IN DENSE FREEZING FOG. ACCORDINGLY, A
DENSE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
JKL CWA. MEANWHILE, AMID MOSTLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS, DEWPOINTS
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, AS WELL, WITH MOST
PLACES REPORTING NEAR 100 PERCENT RH ON ACCOUNT OF THE FOG -
THOUGH A LITTLE BIT OF A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION SHOWS UP NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A LARGE EASTERN TROUGH AT 5H CENTERED
NORTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE AMPLIFIES GREATLY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SHARP PIVOT SOUTHEAST THAT SENDS
AN IMPRESSIVE NODE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND MUCH OF KENTUCKY BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WAVE AND ITS
HEIGHT FALLS SWEEP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST. THIS PROCESS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF A 3H JET STREAK PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS
EXTRA ENHANCEMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE LIFT AVAILABLE FOR THE
SFC SYSTEM AND ITS SNOW AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THE STILL PRETTY
SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS
THE STARTING POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED - MAINLY TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CAMS DETAILS IN POPS ALONG
WITH SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A VERY ACTIVE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE GRAND FINALE OF THIS
RECENT BOUT OF COLDER THAN NORMAL START TO THE COOL SEASON. WE
START OFF THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL TROUBLE CAUSED BY THE
DENSE FREEZING FOG FOR MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY - PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS IN SOME
PLACES. EARLIER THE SPS FOR THIS CONCERN WAS UPGRADED TO A DENSE
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY AS THE THREAT LINGERED. NEXT UP, THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL BLOW IN HERE STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH
AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ITS ENHANCED
LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LIKELY ABLE TO GIVE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE JKL CWA SOME 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW - PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY. FALLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LEAD TO CLIMBING SLRS MAKING FOR FLUFFIER
SNOW THAT SHOULD MAXIMIZE ITS FAIRLY MEAGER QPF. ACCORDINGLY, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THAT PORTION OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON (IN THE NORTHWEST) THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN EASILY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TOWARDS DAWN WEST AND
WIND CHILLS SUB ZERO FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BASED ON THE DIFFERENT
CLIMATOLOGICAL REGIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST
TIER HAVING SLIGHTLY MILDER CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY. THE CW
ADVISORY STARTS AT 1 AM TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES RUNNING THROUGH 1 PM ON SUNDAY. SHOULD THE COLD AIR COME
IN A BIT QUICKER OR WINDS STAY UP ENOUGH POST FRONTAL THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDING AREAL-LY THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. EITHER
WAY, SUNDAY WILL BE A BITTERLY COLD DAY IN THAT ARCTIC AIR MASS
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST AND
LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS A VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH OVERLAPPING ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
DEFINITELY A DAY TO STAY WEATHER AWARE AND PREPARE FOR THE SNOW
AND COLD TO COME TONIGHT.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADDING IN MORE DETAILS FOR THE POPS FROM THE LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE
AND SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
MONDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY, WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. IT WILL ALSO FEEL LIKE A FROZEN
TUNDRA, AS SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS KENTUCKY, RISING HEIGHTS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 30S AROUND AND NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY, AND MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HAL-RODGERS/KY-80 HIGHWAY.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF WEDNESDAY, AS
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THEN. THERE
IS SOME MOISTURE THAT MAY CREEP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY, MORNING, BUT AT CURRENT POP CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOST COUNTIES REMAIN JUST UNDER 15%. NORTH OF THE AREA, AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHICH PACK
ISOBARS THROUGH THAT AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY TRANSLATE AS FAR
SOUTH AS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT CURRENT, GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LOOK
POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL.
POP CHANCES INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY, AS
AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THESE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING, A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE FURTHER WEST, SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE UPPER AND MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO PROGRESS EAST AND LOOKS TO
BECOME SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER CURRENT CHANCES
REMAIN UNDER 15%, SO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH. BY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION COULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S, AND NEAR
60 IN SOME PLACES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT AN VARIABLE LATER FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE
RAIN, BUT MODEL SPREAD IS TO GREAT AT THIS POINT TO NAIL DOWN ANY
SPECIFICS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OR SCATTERED FOR THE MOST PART NEAR A
LINE FROM KSME TO KLOZ TO KCPF TO NEAR KPBX AND THIS SHOULD CREEP
TOWARD KJKL AND KSJS. THUS UNCERTAINTY DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD FOR CEILINGS IS GREATEST AT KJKL, KLOZ, AND KSJS AS
MVFR WAS FORECAST THOUGH THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR AT
THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE NORTH
SUCH AS KSYM WITH MVFR ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD. SOME SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM INCOMING COULD AFFECT
KSYM AND NORTHER LOCATIONS AS EARLY AS 21Z OR 22Z WITH SNOW
STEADIER SNOW DEVELOPING THERE NEARER TO 00Z. HOWEVER, THE AREA OF
SNOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 00Z
AND 12Z, WITH A 2 TO 4 HOUR OF IMPACT ON VIS AND CEILINGS DOWN
INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE. BRIEFLY LOWER CEILINGS OR VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY BEFORE WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KT BY THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME AND THEN
MAINTAIN THAT MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION TO END THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-111.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR KYZ106>110-112-113-115-118>120.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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