315
FXUS63 KJKL 140835
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER LIGHT, TO POSSIBLY MODERATE, SNOWFALL IS ON ITS WAY FOR
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
STANTON TO JACKSON TO WHITESBURG LINE.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN STORE.
- NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR MANY LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S, RESULTING IN A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE.
THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE
RIGHT-FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF A PASSING UPPER JET STREAK AND ITS
RESULTANT AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 903 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL BE WATCHING THE 00Z CAMS
COMING IN AND ASSESSING ANY TRENDS, AND WILL MAKE ANY NECESSARY
UPDATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND TO REFRESH WORDING TO
REMOVE "LATE AFTERNOON" WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. THE
FORECAST IS OVERALL ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE MS VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS NEARING THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER INTO VA AND
TN. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE DAKOTAS AND EXTENDED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL AS SOME JET DYNAMICS/JET STREAK NORTH
OF THE OH RIVER IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SNOW MAINLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
ALSO IN PLACE WITH LOW CLOUDS HAVING PERSISTED IN THE NORTH.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
TO NEAR THE LAKE HURON VICINITY WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AND WORKING EAST OF
EASTERN KY LATE TONIGHT. THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH LATE TONIGHT. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN
EARNEST THIS EVENING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW 0C DURING THE EVENING AND THEN TO ROUGHLY THE -10C
TO -16C RANGE AROUND DAWN ON SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND SOME FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS/RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION IN
THE NORTH THIS EVENING, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AND THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE/NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. THESE FACTORS SHOULD ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE QPF AND ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS AND CROSSES THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND
ABOVE THE DGZ SHOULD LINGER BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO -16 TO -20C LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES FOLLOW. HOWEVER, THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW, AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES AT TIMES DURING MUCH
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHALLOWER SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS
DECREASING THOUGH SOME COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND
SETTLES ACROSS EASTERN KY. LOWS COULD NEAR THE 0 DEGREE MARK
POSSIBLY TO MORE OF AN AREAL EXTENT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS ANY CLEARING AND SNOWCOVER.
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MORE SPOTTY AND
LIKELY MIXED INITIALLY WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY SPREADS SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY ON SUNDAY. BY LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THE SNOW SHOULD ALSO BE MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AGAIN, PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE DURATION OF OMEGA
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHORTEST.
THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING THOUGH THE MOST RECENT 20Z RUN IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
SEVERAL PREVIOUS RUN. THE RECENT RAP RUNS AND NAMNEST HAVE
GENERALLY A BIT HIGHER IN THE ADVISORY AREA AS ARE THE GLOBAL
MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AI. THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER, SOME SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE
ADVISORY AREA COMBINED WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED EVEN IF TOTALS END UP ONLY MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY.
WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
AND IN SOME SPOTS, MAINLY THE WESTERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES, REACH
THE LOWER END OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND CHILLS
AND OR AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN NEAR 0 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR SIMPLICITY AND BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS OPTED
TO ADD HARLAN COUNTY TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND ALSO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ALOFT, UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE
WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS STABLE, ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, ENSURING DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT COOLER
AIR, THEREBY LIMITING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ALLOWING A MODEST WARM-UP TO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE SOUTH.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS PROJECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD, MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND APPROACHING THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY.
CONCURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH, LEADING TO INCREASING POP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, ANOTHER FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO EJECT EASTWARD, FACILITATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOCALLY, A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGER SYSTEM, WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CARRIES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, APPROACHING BUT GENERALLY REMAINING SUB-
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, LREF PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
PLAUSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE FRONT, SURFACE LOW, AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY EJECT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN SUMMARY, DRY, STABLE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT A
PATTERN SHIFT COMMENCES WEDNESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. THURSDAY IS MARKED BY THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCE OF THE
PERIOD, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DELIVERS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. EARLY FRIDAY, A
BRIEF RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM FULLY EXITS AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY, AND HAS
CLEARED THE TERMINALS, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, LIKELY FIRST AT KSME AND KLOZ, BUT
THEN GRADUALLY REACHING ALL TERMINALS BY ~21Z SUNDAY, WITH KJKL
AND ESPECIALLY KSJS SEEING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES LINGERING
THE LONGEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH THOSE SUSTAINED WINDS SUBSIDING AFTER
21Z THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVERHEAD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-111.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ106>110-112-113-115-118>120.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
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