819
FXUS63 KJKL 141000
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS SNOWFALL EVENT IS WINDING DOWN, BUT FLURRIES WILL LINGER
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR REGION TODAY CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
- NEAR NORMAL, TO ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT JUST ABOUT TO EXIT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AS AN AREA OF STRONG AND BITTERLY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS IS BEING
CARRIED INTO THE STATE ON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. ACCORDINGLY,
TEMPERATURES NOW VARY FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY - FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 20S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS OVER WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT WHILE SOME UPSLOPE LIGHTER SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A SHARP 5H TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH A MASS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS ALL MOVES PAST BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN HEIGHTS WILL START TO REBOUND AS THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN RELAXES. NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH ANY IMPULSE OF NOTE PASSING
BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE JKL CWA. THE STILL RATHER SMALL
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE
STARTING POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED - MAINLY TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE CAMS DETAILS AND SOME
CLIMATOLOGY IN POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE ALLOWING FOR AN
EXTRA BIT OF TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES THE COLDEST CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS
SEASON AS ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED INTO KENTUCKY IN THE WAKE OF A NOW
EXITING COLD FRONT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE TO ABOUT
10 MPH THIS MORNING AS LINGERING SNOW COMES TO AN END. DO
ANTICIPATE BEING ABLE TO DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ON
SCHEDULE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ROADS CONDITIONS
MAY STAY SLICK AND ICY IN PLACES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND ONLY FLEETING SUNSHINE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
AFTERNOON POOL ENOUGH TO PROMPT SOME FLUFFY SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY
UNTIL THE LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. CLEARING CONDITIONS AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT WILL FAVOR A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH SOME RIDGE TO
VALLEY DISTINCTION. WHILE WE WILL SEE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING - TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE VALLEYS MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EQUALLY
COLD WITHOUT THE WIND OF THIS MORNING. AFTER NOT SEEING
TEMPERATURES REBOUND OUT OF THE TEENS NORTH AND LOW 20S IN THE
SOUTH, TODAY, THEY DO BETTER ON MONDAY REACHING THE 30S FOR MOST
PLACES THANKS TO RETURNING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH PARTS OF
THE JKL CWA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADDING IN MORE DETAILS FOR THE LIGHT POPS FROM THE LATEST CAMS
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AND SOME TERRAIN DISTINCTION IN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ALOFT, UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE
WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS STABLE, ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, ENSURING DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVECT COOLER
AIR, THEREBY LIMITING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ALLOWING A MODEST WARM-UP TO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE SOUTH.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS PROJECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD, MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND APPROACHING THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY.
CONCURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH, LEADING TO INCREASING POP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, ANOTHER FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO EJECT EASTWARD, FACILITATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOCALLY, A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGER SYSTEM, WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CARRIES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, APPROACHING BUT GENERALLY REMAINING SUB-
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, LREF PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
PLAUSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE FRONT, SURFACE LOW, AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY EJECT OUT OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RE-ESTABLISH ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IN SUMMARY, DRY, STABLE WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT A
PATTERN SHIFT COMMENCES WEDNESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. THURSDAY IS MARKED BY THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCE OF THE
PERIOD, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DELIVERS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. EARLY FRIDAY, A
BRIEF RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM FULLY EXITS AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY, AND HAS
CLEARED THE TERMINALS, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, LIKELY FIRST AT KSME AND KLOZ, BUT
THEN GRADUALLY REACHING ALL TERMINALS BY ~21Z SUNDAY, WITH KJKL
AND ESPECIALLY KSJS SEEING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES LINGERING
THE LONGEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH THOSE SUSTAINED WINDS SUBSIDING AFTER
21Z THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVERHEAD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-111.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ106>110-112-113-115-118>120.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
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