349
FXUS63 KJKL 142337
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS.
- NEAR NORMAL, TO ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- MULTIPLE PASSING SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY RAIN
CHANCES AT TIMES FROM MIDWEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SOUTH INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST.
FURTHER WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER MEXICO WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES THE OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE ARCTIC FRONT LAST NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA HAS USHERED A COLD AIRMASS INTO EASTERN KY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY NEAR -20C IN THE EAST TO
AROUND -13C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME BANDS OF LOW
CLOUDS LINGER OVER OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND POINTS EAST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE TEENS THOUGH
LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. RECENTLY
OBSERVED WIND CHILLS ARE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
ABOVE.
FOR TONIGHT, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST OF EASTERN KY AND TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN EAST OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. 500 MB
HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THIS GENERAL
TREND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF TO
SOUTHEAST CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
EAST TO THE OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY TO THE ARKLATEX REGION
TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WARM ADVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN ALOFT AND THE WARM ADVECTION
AND SFC AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN SHOULD GRADUALLY LEAD TO
THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. SOME SNOW COVER LINGERS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0F SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS IN
THE 0 TO 5 ABOVE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND SOME SPOTS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER MAY DROP TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS NEAR ZERO WILL LINGER EARLY
MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST RESULTS IN MILDER, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR MONDAY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE SFC AND UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A
RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN BETWEEN
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN
PRARIES TO PLAINS.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS MAINTAINED FOR LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE NEAR CRITERIA AT TIMES TONIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY WITH AN SPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT WILL FALL A BIT SHORTER OF CRITERIA
THOUGH WIND CHILLS IN THE 0 TO 5 ABOVE RANGE ARE FORECAST THERE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
AT THE ONSET OF TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST, WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE THE CONUS TAKES SHAPE
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT CURRENT, THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OF ANY CONSEQUENCE FOR THE AREA, PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MODELED OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA. THIS LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND BY THURSDAY MORNING IS MODELED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY, CROSSING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT AROUND THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS STRONG WINDS AT LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS AS WELL.
AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO WESTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-30 MPH. THE LREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT PRESENT A 15-25% CHANCE WIND GUSTS COULD MEET OR EXCEED
25 MPH. THAT SAID, IT APPEARS WINDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BY FRIDAY, THE LAST ALBERTA SYSTEM CONTINUES
INTO THE NORTHEAST US, LEAVING KENTUCKY UNDER SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM AROUND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES COULD
LEAD TO THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY.
IN SUMMARY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TWO WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A POTENT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING TO RAIN
AND SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND THE BETTER PART OF SATURDAY
LOOK MOSTLY DRY AT CURRENT BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY, WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE 30S, SOME 20 DEGREES COLDER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS WILL BE
SEEN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SSW AT 5-7KT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GUEST/FRANKS
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