502
FXUS63 KJKL 150716
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
216 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS.
- NEAR NORMAL, TO ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- MULTIPLE PASSING SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY RAIN
CHANCES AT TIMES FROM MIDWEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO IN SOME
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN LIGHT. ALOFT, A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES
RECOVER A BIT MORE, BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID
DECEMBER. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
FARTHER EAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
REGIONAL WEATHER BEGINS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS CAUSED BY
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE REGION. COMBINING WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH,
THE SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
AREA, INCREASING LIFT AND PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE
LIGHT, WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, BUT PERHAPS UP
TO A TENTH LOCALLY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
TROUGH STALLS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, FAILING TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY, WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOWER 50S FROM HAZARD TO LONDON AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS QUICKLY
USHERED TO THE EAST COAST BY AN INTENSE AND DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST, INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FAVORED ON THURSDAY, SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER. AHEAD OF ANY RAIN,
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING TOWARD RAINFALL CHANCES HOLDING OFF DURING
MOST OF THE MORNING BUT THEN STEADILY INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, BREEZY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW,
PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, AS THE STRONGER WINDS
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT EFFECTIVELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, COLD AIR CUTTING IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO RAIN-SNOW
MIX BEFORE DRY AIR EVENTUALLY WINS. AS THE FORECAST SHARPENS IN TIME
CLOSER TO THE EVENT, THIS MAY BE ENTIRELY ELIMINATED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER, ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES LOWER
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE HIGH
PRESSURE DOESN'T PERSIST FOR TOO LONG AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ORIENTATION
OF THIS TROUGH IS A BIT MORE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST,
PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE EVENT IS
STILL SIX TO SEVEN DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING. SOME FEW- SCT CIRRUS WILL
BE SEEN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SSW AT 5-7KT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-111.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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