934
FXUS63 KJKL 160650
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL, TO ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FRIDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WITH ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK HAS
INDUCED A SHORT-DURATION LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE AREA WHICH
HAS ALLOWED RIDGETOP TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS
LOW-LEVEL JET IS NEARING ITS PEAK AND WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES ON RIDGETOPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN. GRIDS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH
THE MID-EVENING UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
A QUICK LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT OUT TO
UPDATE THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST HOURLY TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MARITIMES
VICINITY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
DEPART FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GULF AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS, THE PATTERN
BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS. FURTHER
WEST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO NORTHERN MEXICO AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO, THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BC AND NORTHWEST CONUS VICINITY MOVING
AROUND UPPER RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER REACHING
ONTARIO TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY EXTENDS FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO TX AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
REMAIN OVER THAT SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL
WEAKEN A BIT. THIS HIGH START TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW COMMENCING IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW NEARER TO 850 MB AND ABOVE.
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY INCREASE THE MOST IN THE LOW LEVELS AS
TUESDAY PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEARER TO 850 MB PER 12Z HREF AND
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE, THE SFC SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER, REACHING ONTARIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SFC
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THAT
TIME, WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY SAGGING TOWARD ND AND THE UPPER
MS VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD REACH ONTARIO TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD MOVE FURTHER EAST IN
ONTARIO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TREKS TO EASTERN TX TO MX. ALSO IN THE WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW, GUIDANCE
HAS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
OH VALLEY COMMONWEALTH. MEANWHILE, THE SFC LOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER SHOULD REACH THE LAKE HURON VICINITY WITH THE TRAILING
FRONT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TO OK. IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST,
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT FURTHER PER 12Z HREF AND OPERATIONAL
MODELS, REMAINING MOST SUBSTANTIAL NEARER TO 850 MB AND AT HIGH
LEVELS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BETWEEN ABOUT 700 MB AND THE 850 MB
OR 875 MB SHOULD BE THE MOST NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TUESDAY.
DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB OR 875 MB LEVEL SHOULD PRECLUDE UNTIL AFTER
DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT
WILL BEGIN A TREND TOWARD NORMAL. THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN
THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS/HOLLOWS. THOSE LOCATIONS SHOULD
DECOUPLE BY SUNSET AND GIVEN 3 PM EST DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NEAR 10F TO THE MID TEENS, THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS/HOLLOWS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE TEENS, WITH LOW TO MID TEENS PROBABLE. A
NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD EXIST AGAIN ON TUESDAY,
WITH UPPER 30S OR AROUND 40 HIGHS NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. THE
INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN MORE UNIFORM LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION
STEADILY INCREASING INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, PEAKING THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 1.00" ARE ADVECTED
NORTH FROM THE GULF WITHIN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET STREAM.
QPF VALUES FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM NEAR ONE-HALF INCH IN THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST IN THE RAIN SHADOW OF PINE AND BLACK
MOUNTAINS TO APPROACHING 1 INCH FROM NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS WEST. THOUGH A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED, THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT ANY HIGH WATER ISSUES FROM
DEVELOPING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S, WITH ANY RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE
ENDING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER VERY LITTLE, LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR
HIGHS.
A ZONAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM
SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. WILL THUS CARRY CHANCE POPS
FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH
HIGHEST POPS LATE SUNDAY WHERE THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
OSCILLATE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
OVERALL WITH THE ZONAL PATTERN USHERING A PACIFIC AIR MASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. WE WILL HAVE
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS KEEPING LLWS IN THE SME AND SYM TAFS THROUGH DAWN.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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