892
FXUS63 KJKL 161600
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1100 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DESPITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, TODAY, NEAR NORMAL, TO ABOVE
NORMAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY BEING COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
- MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING MAINLY RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
FORECAST IS STILL WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOADED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WHICH ONLY RESULTED IN MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
NEAR-TERM FORECAST. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGES ARE STILL READING OKAY,
BUT INCLUDE LATE MORNING WORDING, SO MAY WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO
NOON TO UPDATE AND REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR
A RATHER LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS FOR SHELTERED HOLLOWS WHILE READINGS CLOSER TO 30
DEGREES ARE NOTED ON THE HILLTOPS. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE
BASICALLY IN THE TEENS - THOUGH NEARER TO 10 DEGREES ON THE
EASTERN RIDGES.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONCUR ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID LEVELS ON THE BACK EDGE OF
GENERAL 5H TROUGHINESS FOR THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY.
THE, MAINLY WEAK, IMPULSES IN THIS FLOW WILL STAY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY, FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, ONE OF THESE
DOES BRUSH BY OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT AND ANOTHER MINOR WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY. THE RATHER SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT OF
THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY TO
BEEF UP TERRAIN DISTINCTIONS THIS MORNING AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A WELCOMED WARM UP, AFTER A VERY CHILLY
START IN MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS. LOOK FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE LINGERING SNOW PACK AND LEFTOVER ICY PATCHES
ON AREA ROADS - EXPECT FOR PERHAPS THE MOST SHADED RURAL
STRETCHES. LOOK FOR ANOTHER DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
RANGE TONIGHT WITH A SIMILAR, BUT OVERALL MILDER, SITUATION AS
THIS NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM A
WEAK WAKE PASSING THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND,
BUT STILL RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES - PARTICULARLY GIVEN WHAT
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PAST WEEKEND AND
FOR MUCH OF THE START TO DECEMBER.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADDING IN MORE DETAILS FOR TERRAIN DISTINCTION IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. DID ALSO TWEAK THE SMALL POP
CHANCES ON TUESDAY IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY BASED ON SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE FROM THE CAMS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION
STEADILY INCREASING INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, PEAKING THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 1.00" ARE ADVECTED
NORTH FROM THE GULF WITHIN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET STREAM.
QPF VALUES FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM NEAR ONE-HALF INCH IN THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST IN THE RAIN SHADOW OF PINE AND BLACK
MOUNTAINS TO APPROACHING 1 INCH FROM NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS WEST. THOUGH A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED, THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT ANY HIGH WATER ISSUES FROM
DEVELOPING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S, WITH ANY RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE
ENDING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER VERY LITTLE, LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR
HIGHS.
A ZONAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM
SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. WILL THUS CARRY CHANCE POPS
FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH
HIGHEST POPS LATE SUNDAY WHERE THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
OSCILLATE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
OVERALL WITH THE ZONAL PATTERN USHERING A PACIFIC AIR MASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARILY JUST
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GREIF
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