687
FXUS63 KJKL 162101
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL, TO ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY BEING
COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
- MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING MAINLY RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
FOR ONCE, IT'S A BIT OF A BENIGN FORECAST. STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WITH MILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD. RETURN FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS IS ACTUALLY QUITE DECENT, HOWEVER, AND THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE HAS LED TO AN AREA OF LLVL CLOUDS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AND EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE MASS
WAS A LITTLE LARGER THAN THE STATE, AND DID HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURES. AS OF THE 3PM HOUR, IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
EROSION, AND DO EXPECT IT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SKIES SHOULD INITIALLY CLEAR, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO QUICK DECOUPLING OF THE VALLEYS AND TEMPERATURE FALLS.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL IN OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY HIGH IN NATURE, CONNECTED
TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE STATE. IF WE DO SEE BKN
TO OVC SKIES, THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES, NOT ONLY STOPPING
THE DECOUPLING IN THE VALLEYS, BUT ALSO MODERATING THEM WITH THE
REST OF THE ELEVATIONS. TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN THE DIURNAL TRENDS.
WHILE THINGS WILL BE CALM AT THE SURFACE, IT LOOKS LIKE A MILE
NOCTURNAL LLVL JET WILL SET UP AROUND 850MB. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PRETTY GOOD LLVL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY,
WHICH WAS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE AVIATION FORECAST.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST, FINALLY
DISSIPATING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. POPS DO INCREASE A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION (ALL
10% AND BELOW). EVEN IF POPS DID INCREASE FOR SOME REASON,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE MID 40S AND LOW 50S WITH THE SW FLOW
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY, SO ANYTHING THAT OCCURS WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO TONIGHT, WHERE INITIAL
CLEARING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT US AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY. DID NOT SHOW AS MUCH DECOUPLING OF THE VALLEYS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKE I DID TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, AS THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD
COVER TO CHANGE - AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE HIGHER, WHICH COULD
LIMIT ANY ELEVATION INFLUENCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY SETTLE
IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION
STEADILY INCREASING INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, PEAKING THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 1.00" ARE ADVECTED
NORTH FROM THE GULF WITHIN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET STREAM.
QPF VALUES FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM NEAR ONE-HALF INCH IN THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST IN THE RAIN SHADOW OF PINE AND BLACK
MOUNTAINS TO APPROACHING 1 INCH FROM NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR
AND POINTS WEST. THOUGH A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED, THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT ANY HIGH WATER ISSUES FROM
DEVELOPING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S, WITH ANY RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE
ENDING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER VERY LITTLE, LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR
HIGHS.
A ZONAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM
SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. WILL THUS CARRY CHANCE POPS
FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH
HIGHEST POPS LATE SUNDAY WHERE THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
OSCILLATE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
OVERALL WITH THE ZONAL PATTERN USHERING A PACIFIC AIR MASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1301 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
INCREASING SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS DID
NOT HAVE THIS WELL ANALYZED, BUT AS IT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES, CIGS ARE DROPPING INTO MVFR TERRITORY. BASED ON THE
EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE TO OUR WEST, EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, LIKELY DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW IS ALSO INCREASING TODAY, WHICH IS LEADING TO
SOME ELEVATED GUSTS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES WHERE BETTER MIXING
IS OCCURRING. MEANWHILE, 850MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A MILD LLVL JET. THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME LLVL WIND SHEAR ISSUES OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE CALM, AND WINDS AT 850MB BETWEEN 30 AND 35KTS. MOST OF THE
TAF SITES CAN EXPECT A DECENT PERIOD OF LLVL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE MIXING TAKES HOLD ONCE MORE.
BY THIS POINT, MORE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH IN NATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JMW
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