636
FXUS63 KJKL 170906
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
406 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL, TO ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY BEING
COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
- MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING MAINLY RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
QUICK UPDATE WAS MADE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER OVERALL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. OTHERWISE, THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH IS
TEMPERING THE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP OFF SO FAR. HAVE
ACCORDINGLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SLOWED THE HOURLY DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN RUNNING
A BIT DRIER THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE, ALL SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
FOR ONCE, IT'S A BIT OF A BENIGN FORECAST. STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WITH MILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD. RETURN FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS IS ACTUALLY QUITE DECENT, HOWEVER, AND THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE HAS LED TO AN AREA OF LLVL CLOUDS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH AND EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE MASS
WAS A LITTLE LARGER THAN THE STATE, AND DID HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURES. AS OF THE 3PM HOUR, IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
EROSION, AND DO EXPECT IT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SKIES SHOULD INITIALLY CLEAR, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO QUICK DECOUPLING OF THE VALLEYS AND TEMPERATURE FALLS.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL IN OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY HIGH IN NATURE, CONNECTED
TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE STATE. IF WE DO SEE BKN
TO OVC SKIES, THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES, NOT ONLY STOPPING
THE DECOUPLING IN THE VALLEYS, BUT ALSO MODERATING THEM WITH THE
REST OF THE ELEVATIONS. TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN THE DIURNAL TRENDS.
WHILE THINGS WILL BE CALM AT THE SURFACE, IT LOOKS LIKE A MILE
NOCTURNAL LLVL JET WILL SET UP AROUND 850MB. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
PRETTY GOOD LLVL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY,
WHICH WAS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE AVIATION FORECAST.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST, FINALLY
DISSIPATING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST. POPS DO INCREASE A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION (ALL
10% AND BELOW). EVEN IF POPS DID INCREASE FOR SOME REASON,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE MID 40S AND LOW 50S WITH THE SW FLOW
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY, SO ANYTHING THAT OCCURS WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO TONIGHT, WHERE INITIAL
CLEARING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT US AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY. DID NOT SHOW AS MUCH DECOUPLING OF THE VALLEYS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKE I DID TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, AS THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD
COVER TO CHANGE - AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE HIGHER, WHICH COULD
LIMIT ANY ELEVATION INFLUENCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY SETTLE
IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THURSDAY EVENING, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS POTENT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY THURSDAY, BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED HEADING INTO
THE EVENING. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANT'T BE
RULED OUT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUT CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT, AND LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON JUST HOW MANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THERE MAY
BE.
FRIDAY, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY AND LIGHT AS THE STATE
REMAINS IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER, ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. WINDS
BEGIN TO BACK FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY, AS RISING HEIGHTS USHER IN WARMER AIR. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
LOW RACES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY, WITH A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. WHILE MOST
OF SATURDAY REMAINS DRY, SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
COLD FRONT USHERS IN GULF MOISTURE AND WILL LEAD TO SHOWER CHANCES
HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION RECEIVING
WAA THROUGH THE DAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TO START
NEXT WEEK. A DIRTY RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE AROUND
A GULF HIGH AND LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
AN AREA OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER IS STILL OVER THE AREA AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THIS HAS NOT BEEN MODELED WELL BUT IS GENERALLY BRINGING
LOW VFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS LOWER CEILING TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, LEAVING BEHIND MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MEANWHILE, A LLVL JET IS ALREADY RAMPING UP,
LEADING TO SOME LLVL WIND SHEAR ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND WINDS AT 850MB BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KTS, THE TAF SITES CAN EXPECT A DECENT PERIOD OF LLVL WIND
SHEAR INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE MIXING TAKES HOLD ONCE MORE
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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