100
FXUS63 KJKL 170955
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
455 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL, TO ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY, AS IT WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
- MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING MAINLY RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY WILL BRING WITH
IT GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH, AND A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS, GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST NON-SHELTERED
PLACES. AS A RESULT, MILD CONDITIONS ARE NOTED OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE
SHELTERED SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S ON THE RIDGES AND
MORE OPEN AREAS. MEANWHILE, UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, DEWPOINTS
VARY FROM NEAR 10 DEGREES ON THE NORTHWEST RIDGES TO THE MID 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE, THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT TONIGHT WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO A LARGE,
DEVELOPING TROUGH WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS TROUGH CONSOLIDATES AND DEEPENS BY 12Z THURSDAY
WHILE TILTING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS FLOW SUPPORTS BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE AND WARMTH THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER KENTUCKY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A SHARP
TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND CARRYING WITH IT PLENTY OF ENERGY. THE STILL FAIRLY
NARROW SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED THE NBM AS THE STARTING
POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED -
MAINLY TO ADD IN POP AND STORM POTENTIAL DETAILS FROM THE CAMS
FOR THURSDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH MILDER START TO THE DAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS PROP UP THE WARMER TEMPERATURES - DESPITE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND. EXPECT ANOTHER RATHER MILD NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS
AND SOME SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE WINDS WILL
START TO PICK UP TOWARDS DAWN, THURSDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT. SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. THESE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHILE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
REGION. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE THUNDER CHANCES TO
A MINIMUM WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH OR
WITHOUT THUNDER, SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY
COULD BRING DOWN THOSE HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. ACCORDINGLY,
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA - AND MUCH OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY -
ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER - PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR THESE WINDS CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER DARK.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADDING IN DETAILS FROM THE CAMS CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY AS WELL AS
ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS LATER THAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THURSDAY EVENING, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS POTENT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY THURSDAY, BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED HEADING INTO
THE EVENING. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANT'T BE
RULED OUT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUT CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 50S. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT, AND LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR ON JUST HOW MANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THERE MAY
BE.
FRIDAY, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY AND LIGHT AS THE STATE
REMAINS IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER, ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS. WINDS
BEGIN TO BACK FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY, AS RISING HEIGHTS USHER IN WARMER AIR. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
LOW RACES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY, WITH A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. WHILE MOST
OF SATURDAY REMAINS DRY, SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
COLD FRONT USHERS IN GULF MOISTURE AND WILL LEAD TO SHOWER CHANCES
HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION RECEIVING
WAA THROUGH THE DAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TO START
NEXT WEEK. A DIRTY RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE AROUND
A GULF HIGH AND LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
AN AREA OF LOW-MID CLOUD COVER IS STILL OVER THE AREA AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THIS HAS NOT BEEN MODELED WELL BUT IS GENERALLY BRINGING
LOW VFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS LOWER CEILING TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, LEAVING BEHIND MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MEANWHILE, A LLVL JET IS ALREADY RAMPING UP,
LEADING TO SOME LLVL WIND SHEAR ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND WINDS AT 850MB BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KTS, THE TAF SITES CAN EXPECT A DECENT PERIOD OF LLVL WIND
SHEAR INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE MIXING TAKES HOLD ONCE MORE
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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