682
FXUS63 KJKL 171957
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THAT COLD
FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
- MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD, WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
OUTPERFORMING EARLIER EXPECTATIONS, WITH MANY SITES IN EASTERN KY
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. DESPITE THE SLACKENING OF
THE LLJ, TRENDED AFTERNOON HIGHS UPWARDS INTO THE MID 50S TO
ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL WARMING AND THE GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUD
COVER FROM NW TO SE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. THIS IS KEEPING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH, AND A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS, GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST NON-SHELTERED
PLACES. AS A RESULT, MILD CONDITIONS ARE NOTED OVERNIGHT WITH
READINGS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE
SHELTERED SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS TO THE UPPER 40S ON THE RIDGES AND
MORE OPEN AREAS. MEANWHILE, UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, DEWPOINTS
VARY FROM NEAR 10 DEGREES ON THE NORTHWEST RIDGES TO THE MID 20S
IN THE SOUTHEAST VALLEYS.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT A 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE, THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT TONIGHT WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO A LARGE,
DEVELOPING TROUGH WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS TROUGH CONSOLIDATES AND DEEPENS BY 12Z THURSDAY
WHILE TILTING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS FLOW SUPPORTS BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE AND WARMTH THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER KENTUCKY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A SHARP
TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE STATE BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND CARRYING WITH IT PLENTY OF ENERGY. THE STILL FAIRLY
NARROW SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED THE NBM AS THE STARTING
POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED -
MAINLY TO ADD IN POP AND STORM POTENTIAL DETAILS FROM THE CAMS
FOR THURSDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A MUCH MILDER START TO THE DAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS PROP UP THE WARMER TEMPERATURES - DESPITE PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AROUND. EXPECT ANOTHER RATHER MILD NIGHT AS THE CLOUDS
AND SOME SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE WINDS WILL
START TO PICK UP TOWARDS DAWN, THURSDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT. SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN TO OUR
WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THAT FRONT LATER IN THE
MORNING. THESE WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHILE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE REGION. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP THE THUNDER CHANCES TO A MINIMUM WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER, SOME OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY COULD BRING DOWN THOSE HIGHER
WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC. ACCORDINGLY, WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA -
AND MUCH OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY - ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER - PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
THREAT FOR THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER DARK.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT WERE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON
ADDING IN DETAILS FROM THE CAMS CONSENSUS FOR THURSDAY AS WELL AS
ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS LATER THAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE AXIS OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND MOVING EAST, WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY
THAT THE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS AND EXITING THE REGION AND THE
LIMITED SOLAR HEATING THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT,
WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAKER FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
WITHIN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY, WITH 40S
MOSTLY FOR HIGHS SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
POPS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID- TO LATE DECEMBER DURING
THIS TIME WITH AIR MASSES HAVING MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY LIFTED AT
SYM,SJS, AND KSME. THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST UPSTREAM OF JKL AND
LOZ IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING. SOME HIGHER-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT, BUT ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. DIURNAL
MIXING HAS YIELDED BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUD COVER HAS TAPERED OFF, BUT SURFACE WINDS AND ANY GUSTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. LATER IN THE NIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET
KICKS IN ALOFT AND YIELDS A PERIOD OF LLWS. AS THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT DIURNALLY TOMORROW MORNING, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, BUT MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AT THE
TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MARCUS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...MARCUS
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