079
FXUS63 KJKL 180523
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1223 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THAT COLD
FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
- MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD, WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED IN MANY OF THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES, WARRANTING A LOWERING
OF THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
COLDEST EASTERN LOCALES. SOME UNEXPECTED LIGHT WAA RAIN IS WORKING
NORTH INTO THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA, SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/SPRINKLES
HAVE BEEN ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN
DOWNSTREAM OF PINEVILLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS FAIRLY HIGH, AS
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER SET UP THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PERIOD IS BOOKENDED BY THE
INFLUENCE OF TWO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. THE FIRST TROUGH IS
NOTABLY WEAKER AND IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND WILL BE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED, AND IT WILL
DIG DEEP INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT,
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO AND DRAGGING A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS,
THIS MEANS THAT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MUCH BUSIER THAN
THE BEGINNING.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLY-DAY LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK HAS CLEARED THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS BEFORE SOME
UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN. THAT BEING SAID, CALM AND DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS
BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. EXPECT SEASONABLY MILD LOWS IN THE 30S, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
UNDER A NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND BECOME LOCALLY COLDER.
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW
MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM'S APPROACH. AS THE PARENT
TROUGH DIGS DEEPER, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND USHER WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
COLLECTIVELY DEPICT A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TOMORROW. AROUND THE SAME TIME, THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEM'S
DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE SYNOPTICS, ALONG
WITH THE DIURNAL MIXING CYCLE, SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS IN SOME AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT THE LATEST HREF
PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A GREATER THAN
80% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
OF THESE MAGNITUDE ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO BLOW AROUND ANY OUTDOOR
SEASONAL HOLIDAY DECORATIONS, BUT THE GREATEST SPATIOTEMPORAL
COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS COULD COME IN ANY SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THE WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA FROM THESE STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD YIELD WARMER-THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND MAYBE THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50, BUT THIS IS LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO YIELD SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED DOWNWARDS, AND IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS, SPC HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK. MORE-THAN-SUFFICIENT SHEAR PARAMETERS AND STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING COULD STILL RESULT IN A GUSTY LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING, BUT MOST OF TOMORROW'S PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF GENERIC RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
CHANCES SPREAD FROM SW TO NE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THEN TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS FROPA OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM REDUCES THE RISK OF HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS, BUT A
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY. THE HREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF
GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING IS GREATER THAN 80% FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCALIZED RAIN SHADOW EFFECTS MAY REDUCE TOTALS DOWNWIND OF
SOUTHWARD-FACING SLOPES, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE WV
STATE LINE.
THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS SHARP, AND
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY ACCORDINGLY END AS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES,
BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
WARMTH. LIKEWISE, BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DEGREE OF DRYING ON THE GROUND BEFORE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE. WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT
LIKELY, BUT THE TYPICAL PROBLEM SPOTS MAY BECOME SLICK IN LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. THERE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP
INTO THE 20S, WHEREAS LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE WV AND VA STATE LINES
WILL COOL TO NEAR/JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE AXIS OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AND MOVING EAST, WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH
COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY
THAT THE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS AND EXITING THE REGION AND THE
LIMITED SOLAR HEATING THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT,
WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAKER FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
WITHIN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY, WITH 40S
MOSTLY FOR HIGHS SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
POPS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID- TO LATE DECEMBER DURING
THIS TIME WITH AIR MASSES HAVING MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE. THOSE PATCHY VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TOWARD DAWN, A LOW-LEVEL JET KICKS IN
ALOFT AND YIELDS A PERIOD OF LLWS. AS THE INVERSION MIXES OUT
DIURNALLY TOMORROW MORNING, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT
THE SURFACE AND LLWS WILL END. EXPECT INCREASING AND LOWERING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY WITH MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 17Z. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z FRIDAY, BRINGING A SHARP
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS BRIEFLY
APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 40KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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