599
FXUS63 KJKL 181739
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1239 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THAT COLD
FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
- MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD, WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS ASIDE FROM LOADING IN THE
LATEST SURFACE OBS. AS WELL AS, TOUCHING UP POP AND WINDS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. MORNING TEXT AND
RADIO PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CHANGES. GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS RETREATED TO THE EAST. THIS
SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT IS LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG WITH SPRINKLES EXITING IN THE FAR EAST. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS, DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE MID TEENS ON SOME OF THE
EASTERN RIDGES TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING 5H TROUGH DIGGING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY - TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND PLENTY
OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT ENERGY MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK REBOUND IN 5H HEIGHTS
FOR THIS PART OF THE STATE. THE SURPRISINGLY NARROW SPREAD AMONG
THE MODELS AGAIN SUPPORTED THE NBM AS THE STARTING POINT OF THE
FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED - MAINLY ADDING IN
POP DETAILS FROM THE CAMS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY AND WET DAY
AHEAD OF A QUICK HITTING WEATHER SYSTEM. LOOK FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS TAKING PLACE INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE LAST ONE OCCURRING
ALONG A RATHER SHARP PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS - UP TO 45 MPH - AS IT PASSES.
AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SHORTLY. IN ADDITION, THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT,
COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE JKL CWA ON STOUT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS WILL COOL THE COLUMN TOWARDS DAWN AND TRANSITION ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. AFTER
A CHILLY START, FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ONLY INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S MOST PLACES AS CAA DOMINATES ON WEST WINDS.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
ADDING IN DETAILS FROM THE CAMS CONSENSUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
AS WELL AS ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING THURSDAY-FRIDAY SYSTEM, SKIES CLEAR
UNDER LIGHT BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY, FRIDAY
NIGHT. VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE, LEADING TO FAIRLY LARGE
RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S. IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. ELSEWHERE ALONG RIDGE-TOPS,
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO, PASSES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 MPH, WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES, AND POPS REMAIN IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, MOISTURE CREEPING POLEWARD
FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A SERIES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWERS ARE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND HAVE BEGUN TO IMPACT KSME AND SOON
KLOZ BUT SITES HAVE REMAINED VFR; HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, TERMINALS INTO FALL INTO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ONCE SHOWERS TAPER OFF,
LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW FLURRIES
MIXING IN.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST
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