653
FXUS63 KJKL 182030
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
COLD FRONT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- FRIDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THAT COLD
FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
- MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE ON TRACK TO BRING PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD, WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OCCLUDING 984 MB LOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS
FEATURE, AN OCCLUDED FRONT PERSISTS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT ORIENTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE
COMMONWEALTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE CURLING TOWARD A WEAK LEE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY, ISENTROPIC LIFT-DRIVEN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S. INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY, BUT THESE WILL
EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE JKL CWA. WHILE ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET,
ONGOING PRECIPITATION, THICK CLOUD COVER, AND A ROBUST TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AT 900 MB WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THESE HIGHER WINDS AS THOSE
ELEVATIONS RESIDE ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES, MECHANICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW THOSE HIGHER-MOMENTUM WINDS TO
REACH THE SURFACE. GENERALLY, GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH ARE TO BE
EXPECTED, BUT CAN’T RULE OUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF GUSTS AROUND 35
TO 40 MPH, THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY SHOWERS EXPECTED. FOLLOWING FROPA,
CAA WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR CAUSING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN COOLS.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS
THE REGION REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAKS OF 20 TO
25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES COLDER, WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 30S, THOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG THE
VA AND TN BORDER MAY REACH THE LOW 40S. WINDS WILL SLACKEN FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES, LEADING TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 20S, WITH VALLEY
LOCALES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOLLOWED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH
WILL USHER IN DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING THURSDAY-FRIDAY SYSTEM, SKIES CLEAR
UNDER LIGHT BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY, FRIDAY
NIGHT. VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE, LEADING TO FAIRLY LARGE
RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S. IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. ELSEWHERE ALONG RIDGE-TOPS,
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO, PASSES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 MPH, WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES, AND POPS REMAIN IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, MOISTURE CREEPING POLEWARD
FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A SERIES
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWERS ARE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND HAVE BEGUN TO IMPACT KSME AND SOON
KLOZ BUT SITES HAVE REMAINED VFR; HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, TERMINALS INTO FALL INTO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ONCE SHOWERS TAPER OFF,
LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW FLURRIES
MIXING IN.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page