209
FXUS63 KJKL 040900
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY, WITH MANY
AREAS REACHING THE 60S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
- MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH FLOOD RISKS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE 0728Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SITUATED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE IS EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, INCLUDING EASTERN KENTUCKY. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S, WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS OBSERVED IN THE MOST
SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE HEART OF THE CONUS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
PRESENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, A JET STREAK IS MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE REGION IS POSITIONED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THIS JET, WHICH REINFORCES THE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COLD ADVECTION REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THERMAL DRIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND QUICKLY EJECTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS FAVORED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ON LEE OF THE ROCKIES, AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE, DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST, BUT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE.
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS MONDAY MORNING WITH A 500 HPA RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE AN ARCED UPSTREAM TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE ALASKA/YUKON ARCTIC SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME PACIFIC ENERGY IS
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, WITH A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH FEEDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE, WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE.
THE MAIN STORY ON MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL BE THE
INCREASINGLY MILD AIR MASS THAT WILL ADVECT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS (7-8C @ 850 HPA LREF MEAN AT
18Z TUESDAY). AT THE SAME TIME, THAT ENERGY WILL CUT INTO/FLATTEN
THE 500 HPA RIDGING INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM INITIALLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE TO OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE MODEST AND FORCING WILL BE LIMITED, SO OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
APPEAR QUITE MEAGER AT THIS POINT (UNDER A 30% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 0.10 INCH) AND THE FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS OVER OR ADJACENT
TO THE JKL CWA. THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME THE
FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK ALONG LATER
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL SYSTEM DEPTH AND TRACK, MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL SUPPORTS
THE WESTERN 500 HPA TROUGH PIVOTING EAST LATE IN THE WEEK,
SUPPORTING ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG OR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, LREF MEAN PWATS SURGE BACK ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY, SO A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, AND THAT SHOULD MITIGATE
OVERALL HYDRO CONCERNS EVEN IF A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
IMPACTS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, ANTICIPATE MUCH MILDER WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SANDWICHED BY HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F ON MONDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME
LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, EXCEPT ON MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCALES COULD STILL DIP INTO THE 30S. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS THEN IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
BUT IT SHOULD BE MAINLY A NUISANCE. ROUNDS OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT 06Z TAF ISSUANCE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE
LOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GREIF
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