715
FXUS63 KJKL 041130
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
630 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY, WITH MANY
AREAS REACHING THE 60S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
- MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH FLOOD RISKS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE 0728Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SITUATED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE IS EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, INCLUDING EASTERN KENTUCKY. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S, WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS OBSERVED IN THE MOST
SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE HEART OF THE CONUS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
PRESENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, A JET STREAK IS MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE REGION IS POSITIONED WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THIS JET, WHICH REINFORCES THE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, THIS TRANSLATES TO DRY WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS COLD ADVECTION REMAINS THE
PRIMARY THERMAL DRIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CLIMB
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND QUICKLY EJECTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS FAVORED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ON LEE OF THE ROCKIES, AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE, DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST, BUT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE.
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE PATTERN. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL START OUT MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES, AS INBOUND EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY ALLOWS FOR
BROADER AND DEEPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND TRANSLATE EAST, REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SETUP; HOWEVER, DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION
AND TIMING OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOME INFLUX OF HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL MODERATE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, TO THE LOW TO MID 40S AT MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THANKS TO A PASSING WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE NICEST OVERALL DAY OF THE WEEK, AS MODEST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD WITH BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS,
KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY WHILE TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED THOUGH, AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. AN
EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL
OCCUR. AGAIN, SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION, ANY HYDRO
THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE OVERALL DRIER
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
WINDOW WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...VORST
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