584
FXUS63 KJKL 042018
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY, WITH MANY
AREAS REACHING THE 60S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
- MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH FLOOD RISKS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
BRIGHT SUNSHINE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY COALFIELDS
THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOL BUT SEASONABLE FOR
EARLY JANUARY, RANGING FROM AROUND 40F NORTH OF I-64 TO 52F AT
MIDDLESBORO. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ITS ~1023 MB CENTER SITUATED OVER EASTERN OHIO. ALOFT,
BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE, WITH AN 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA, WHILE
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY (AND VICINITY)
SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE WEST COAST. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EJECTING FROM THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE RIDGE, INCLUDING A
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THAT DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE, KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET, DRY, AND COOL EVEN AS THE CORE
OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. AS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MUCH MILDER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION, WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING
BACK TO AROUND 8-10C (LREF MEAN). THE GFS BUFKIT MIXED LAYER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS GETTING INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE LINGERING 500 HPA RIDGING ALOFT WILL
INITIATE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATE MONDAY, WITH THAT SYSTEM THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A CONTINUED QUIET SHORT-TERM
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. A NOTABLE RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
COLDEST HOLLOWS TO THE MID 30S ON WARMER RIDGETOPS. ON MONDAY,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S WITH A BUSY SOUTHWEST BREEZE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 MPH AT TIMES. ON MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS RETURN, BUT NOT
BEFORE TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL START OUT MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES, AS INBOUND EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY ALLOWS FOR
BROADER AND DEEPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND TRANSLATE EAST, REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS SETUP; HOWEVER, DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION
AND TIMING OF SMALL SCALE FEATURES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOME INFLUX OF HIGH CLOUDS. LOWS WILL MODERATE TO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, TO THE LOW TO MID 40S AT MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THANKS TO A PASSING WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE NICEST OVERALL DAY OF THE WEEK, AS MODEST
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD WITH BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS,
KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY WHILE TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED THOUGH, AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. AN
EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL
OCCUR. AGAIN, SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION, ANY HYDRO
THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE OVERALL DRIER
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
WINDOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/VORST
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