922
FXUS63 KJKL 042050
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY, WITH MANY
AREAS REACHING THE 60S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH FLOOD RISKS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
BRIGHT SUNSHINE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY COALFIELDS
THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOL BUT SEASONABLE FOR
EARLY JANUARY, RANGING FROM AROUND 40F NORTH OF I-64 TO 52F AT
MIDDLESBORO. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ITS ~1023 MB CENTER SITUATED OVER EASTERN OHIO. ALOFT,
BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE, WITH AN 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA, WHILE
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY (AND VICINITY)
SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE WEST COAST. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EJECTING FROM THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE RIDGE, INCLUDING A
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THAT DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE, KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET, DRY, AND COOL EVEN AS THE CORE
OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. AS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MUCH MILDER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION, WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING
BACK TO AROUND 8-10C (LREF MEAN). THE GFS BUFKIT MIXED LAYER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS GETTING INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE LINGERING 500 HPA RIDGING ALOFT WILL
INITIATE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATE MONDAY, WITH THAT SYSTEM THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A CONTINUED QUIET SHORT-TERM
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. A NOTABLE RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
COLDEST HOLLOWS TO THE MID 30S ON WARMER RIDGETOPS. ON MONDAY,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S WITH A BUSY SOUTHWEST BREEZE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 MPH AT TIMES. ON MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS RETURN, BUT NOT
BEFORE TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASINGLY
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A MODEST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ATTENDED BY A WEAK
SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THAT SURFACE LOW
NEAR/OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS. FURTHER
UPSTREAM, AN ~554 DAM CLOSED LOW IS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA.
THE INITIAL PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER MID-WEEK WILL BE THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ESPECIALLY ITS COLD FRONT. AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AND HANG UP TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAINFALL WITH
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF A
TRACE TO PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH IN THE WAKE OF THAT
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IMPROVING
LATER IN THE WEEK, SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW, INITIALLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OPENING AS POTENT NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE VICINITY OF ALASKA. BOTH
PHASE TOGETHER INTO A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE CONUS AND LIKELY CLOSE OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, FOLLOWED BY A POTENT COLD FRONT. A POTENTIALLY
SOAKING RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND DROPPING
TEMPERATURES SEEMS PROBABLE, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN HAZY THIS FAR
OUT. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF EVENT TOTAL
RAINFALL RANGE FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT (EAST TO WEST) AT THE PRESENT
TIME.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. TUESDAY WILL
FEATURE THICKENING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID
60S SOUTH. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL MAINLY RUN
IN THE 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN RETURN THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING;
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 60S WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGE IN
THE 50S. TEMPERATURES THEN CRASH THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIALLY
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS SWITCHING TO SNOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
WINDOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/VORST
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