837
FXUS63 KJKL 050912
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
412 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY, WITH MANY
AREAS REACHING THE 60S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH ANY FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST STILL
MOSTLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS
WORKING TO SETTLE THE WINDS AND KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER A SKY
WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE TEENS NORTH AND IN THE LOW 20S SOUTH. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
BRIGHT SUNSHINE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY COALFIELDS
THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOL BUT SEASONABLE FOR
EARLY JANUARY, RANGING FROM AROUND 40F NORTH OF I-64 TO 52F AT
MIDDLESBORO. HIGH PRESSURE IS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ITS ~1023 MB CENTER SITUATED OVER EASTERN OHIO. ALOFT,
BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE, WITH AN 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA, WHILE
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY (AND VICINITY)
SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE WEST COAST. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EJECTING FROM THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE RIDGE, INCLUDING A
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
THAT DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE, KEEPING OUR WEATHER QUIET, DRY, AND COOL EVEN AS THE CORE
OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. AS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MUCH MILDER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION, WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING
BACK TO AROUND 8-10C (LREF MEAN). THE GFS BUFKIT MIXED LAYER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS GETTING INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE LINGERING 500 HPA RIDGING ALOFT WILL
INITIATE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATE MONDAY, WITH THAT SYSTEM THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR A CONTINUED QUIET SHORT-TERM
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. A NOTABLE RIDGE-VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
COLDEST HOLLOWS TO THE MID 30S ON WARMER RIDGETOPS. ON MONDAY,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S WITH A BUSY SOUTHWEST BREEZE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 MPH AT TIMES. ON MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS RETURN, BUT NOT
BEFORE TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AMPLIFYING FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS NORTHERN STREAM
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
THAT WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RESULTANT DEEP TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE CROSSING THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INITIAL PHASING EARLY ON, BUT DO DIFFER ON
THE TIMING OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH, PARTICULARLY BY THIS WEEKEND.
A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CRUISING EAST, AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN,
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S, WITH SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE WEST
PERHAPS SEEING SOME UPPER 30S, WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARING
TAKES PLACE. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH OF I-64
TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FOR
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING TO THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OCCURRING IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS, WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE MID 40S UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AS BAROCLINICITY SHARPENS UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. POPS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS CLOSER WITH
TIME. THE HIGHEST OVERALL RAIN CHANCES (70-80%) AREA-WIDE WILL
OCCUR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AGAIN, DETAILS
ARE STILL MURKY IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH EVENT TOTAL LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAVING
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY, GENERALLY STILL IN THE 20-50%
RANGE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE HYDRO THREAT LOW FOR THIS EVENT, BARRING
ANY MORE CONVECTIVE OUTCOMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S, AND LOWS MODERATE FROM THE 40S TO THE 50S. ON SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED EARLIER IN THE DAY, GENERALLY IN
THE 50S. READINGS WILL THEN LIKELY COOL OFF THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH MORE BLUSTERY POST-FRONTAL WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN PLACE. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING,
BEFORE MAINLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS (20-30%) LINGER INTO SUNDAY,
GIVEN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
ONLY PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE TAF WINDOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GREIF
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