815
FXUS63 KJKL 051759
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1259 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY, WITH MANY
AREAS REACHING THE 60S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH ANY FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 50S
(EVEN INTO THE LOW 60S IN THE WARM SPOTS) WITH A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE. A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT SUNSHINE REMAINS QUITE BRIGHT. STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 55F NORTH TO 63F SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
STARK TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED LATE THIS MORNING IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS VS OVER THE THERMAL BELT RIDGES (27F AT KENTUCKY
MESONET RFVC IN A SHELTERED SOUTHEAST BREATHITT COUNTY VALLEY TO
51F AT KENTUCKY MESONET VEST ON A RIDGE IN ADJACENT KNOTT COUNTY).
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HOURLY
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BROUGHT BACK INTO LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS,
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 723 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES ASIDE FROM INCORPORATING THE LATEST SURFACE OBS
AND TWEAKING THE DIURNAL CURVE THROUGH THE MORNING. GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SITUATED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS HIGH IS EXERTING
ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, INCLUDING EASTERN
KENTUCKY. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL WAA IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALONG RIDGE-TOP LOCATIONS.
TODAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES COURTESY OF
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND EVEN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS TWO-FOLD: LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR, AND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLACED IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND OF A DRY WARM
FRONT. THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WARMING TREND, SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
TIED TO THE LLJ WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET, BUT
CONTINUED WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MILD, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WHILE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE OF THE PERIOD MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES, A SECOND FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP MONDAY AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CONUS. BY TUESDAY
MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR, ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED. WHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR, LLJ
WINDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SHARP INVERSION AT 850 MB, AND THOSE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY LOCKED ABOVE THE INVERSION. HOWEVER, ANY LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD AID IN MIXING THOSE WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS, SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE. POP CHANCES EXIST
FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, BUT DUE TO THE DEPTH OF DRY
AIR, THE POP WILL BE LIMITED TO 20% TO 30% BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
INITIALLY DOMINATING THE PATTERN FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ATTEMPT TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST ON
MONDAY WILL BRING ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS. TUESDAY BRINGS A SECOND DISTURBANCE WITH SLIGHT POP
CHANCES, THOUGH INCREASED WINDS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AMPLIFYING FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS NORTHERN STREAM
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
THAT WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RESULTANT DEEP TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE CROSSING THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INITIAL PHASING EARLY ON, BUT DO DIFFER ON
THE TIMING OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH, PARTICULARLY BY THIS WEEKEND.
A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CRUISING EAST, AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN,
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S, WITH SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE WEST
PERHAPS SEEING SOME UPPER 30S, WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARING
TAKES PLACE. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH OF I-64
TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FOR
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING TO THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OCCURRING IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS, WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE MID 40S UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AS BAROCLINICITY SHARPENS UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. POPS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS CLOSER WITH
TIME. THE HIGHEST OVERALL RAIN CHANCES (70-80%) AREA-WIDE WILL
OCCUR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AGAIN, DETAILS
ARE STILL MURKY IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH EVENT TOTAL LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAVING
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY, GENERALLY STILL IN THE 20-50%
RANGE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE HYDRO THREAT LOW FOR THIS EVENT, BARRING
ANY MORE CONVECTIVE OUTCOMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S, AND LOWS MODERATE FROM THE 40S TO THE 50S. ON SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED EARLIER IN THE DAY, GENERALLY IN
THE 50S. READINGS WILL THEN LIKELY COOL OFF THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH MORE BLUSTERY POST-FRONTAL WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN PLACE. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING,
BEFORE MAINLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS (20-30%) LINGER INTO SUNDAY,
GIVEN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
ONLY PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, SLACKENING TO VARIABLE/SOUTHWEST AT 5
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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