791
FXUS63 KJKL 052010
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH ANY FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE MUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM 58F AT THE FLEMING-MASON AIRPORT IN THE
NORTH TO 65F AT THE KNOX COUNTY MESONET SITE IN THE SOUTH. THE
WARMTH IS COURTESY OF THE BALMY SOUTHWEST BREEZE AT 5 TO 10 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE LATEST WEATHER
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WARM RETURN FLOW OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ALOFT,
BROAD 500 HPA RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION WITH
AN AXIS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. UPSTREAM
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA IS SHEARING AWAY FROM THE TROUGHING
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, CAUSING THAT PORTION TO CLOSE OFF.
ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE TROUGHING INTO THE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS SUPPORTING A BROAD BUT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THAT ENERGY AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A DAMPER
WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUESDAY
AND TO NEAR CAPE COD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
ON TUESDAY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT SHALLOW, GENERALLY CONFINED BELOW 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT, MORE DRIZZLE-
LIKE INSTEAD OF RAINDROPS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE VERY MINIMAL. IT IS ALSO FAVORED TO BE QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM
SECTOR -- THE GFS BUFKIT MIXED-LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 20 TO
30 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS DECENT PROXY FOR PEAK SURFACE WIND
GUSTS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S,
EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY,
CLOUDY SKIES WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
WARM AND BREEZY; HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT
TIMES. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ALONG WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPRINKLES. CLOUDS ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT, LEAVING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AMPLIFYING FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS NORTHERN STREAM
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
THAT WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RESULTANT DEEP TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS REGION TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE CROSSING THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INITIAL PHASING EARLY ON, BUT DO DIFFER ON
THE TIMING OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH, PARTICULARLY BY THIS WEEKEND.
A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CRUISING EAST, AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN,
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S, WITH SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE WEST
PERHAPS SEEING SOME UPPER 30S, WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEARING
TAKES PLACE. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH OF I-64
TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD FOR
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING TO THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OCCURRING IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS, WHILE RIDGES STAY UP IN THE MID 40S UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AS BAROCLINICITY SHARPENS UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. POPS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS CLOSER WITH
TIME. THE HIGHEST OVERALL RAIN CHANCES (70-80%) AREA-WIDE WILL
OCCUR FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AGAIN, DETAILS
ARE STILL MURKY IN THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH EVENT TOTAL LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL HAVING
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY, GENERALLY STILL IN THE 20-50%
RANGE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE HYDRO THREAT LOW FOR THIS EVENT, BARRING
ANY MORE CONVECTIVE OUTCOMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
60S, AND LOWS MODERATE FROM THE 40S TO THE 50S. ON SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED EARLIER IN THE DAY, GENERALLY IN
THE 50S. READINGS WILL THEN LIKELY COOL OFF THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH MORE BLUSTERY POST-FRONTAL WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN PLACE. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING,
BEFORE MAINLY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS (20-30%) LINGER INTO SUNDAY,
GIVEN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
ONLY PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, SLACKENING TO VARIABLE/SOUTHWEST AT 5
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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