269
FXUS63 KJKL 060450 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1150 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ARRIVE THAT AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH ANY FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST
THE INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE SAFS AND ZONES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF
KENTUCKY, BUT STILL KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S IN
SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO THE MID 50S, ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE, AMID MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH, DEWPOINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADD IN THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY
GRIDS. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE MUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM 58F AT THE FLEMING-MASON AIRPORT IN THE
NORTH TO 65F AT THE KNOX COUNTY MESONET SITE IN THE SOUTH. THE
WARMTH IS COURTESY OF THE BALMY SOUTHWEST BREEZE AT 5 TO 10 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE LATEST WEATHER
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WARM RETURN FLOW OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ALOFT,
BROAD 500 HPA RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION WITH
AN AXIS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. UPSTREAM
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA IS SHEARING AWAY FROM THE TROUGHING
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, CAUSING THAT PORTION TO CLOSE OFF.
ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE TROUGHING INTO THE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS SUPPORTING A BROAD BUT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THAT ENERGY AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A DAMPER
WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUESDAY
AND TO NEAR CAPE COD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ON TUESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
ON TUESDAY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT SHALLOW, GENERALLY CONFINED BELOW 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT, MORE DRIZZLE-
LIKE INSTEAD OF RAINDROPS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE VERY MINIMAL. IT IS ALSO FAVORED TO BE QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM
SECTOR -- THE GFS BUFKIT MIXED-LAYER MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 20 TO
30 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS DECENT PROXY FOR PEAK SURFACE WIND
GUSTS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S,
EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY,
CLOUDY SKIES WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
WARM AND BREEZY; HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT
TIMES. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ALONG WITH PERHAPS A
FEW SPRINKLES. CLOUDS ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT, LEAVING
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD OPENS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH QUASI-ZONAL TO
WEAKLY RIDGED FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. UPSTREAM, A ~556 DAM LOW IS
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. MULTIPLE PIECES OF POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALASKA AND
THE NORTH PACIFIC.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW
SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA SHIFTING EAST AND OPENING ON WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM 500 HPA ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST
AND CARVES A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
REGARD TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY IT
PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT ANY RATE, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, SENDING THE COLD FRONT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. A SOAKING RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE LREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR LAKE
CUMBERLAND. MUCH COLDER AIR IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS THE 500 HPA TROUGH TRANSITS THE OHIO VALLEY,
BUT THE COLD SNAP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED WITH MODELS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH PULLING AWAY QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER TERMS, LOOK FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
MORNING CLOUDS YIELDING TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE COOL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SETTLING BACK INTO THE LOW 30S
TO LOW 40S. PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT; HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE IN THE 60S WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGE IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES THEN CRASH THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SWITCHING TO A LITTLE SNOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN
ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN ARRIVING WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS BY MIDDAY, TUESDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GREIF
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