509
FXUS63 KJKL 060937
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
437 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK.
- THERE'S A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH ANY FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW FOR
NOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
AS OF THE 0724Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, THE PRIMARY CHANGE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH IS BEING
REPLACED BY AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR THE TRI-POINT JUNCTION OF IOWA, ILLINOIS, AND
MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS
ILLINOIS, INDIANA, AND OHIO. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CENTER, WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE COMMONWEALTH REMAINS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR,
CHARACTERIZED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WAA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THESE CLEAR SKIES HAVE FACILITATED EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, ALLOWING VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH, LEADING TO INCREASING POPS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. POPS ARE CAPPED AT 20% TO 30%,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT, THOUGH THE SURFACE-TO-850 MB LAYER REMAINS
NEARLY SATURATED. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO CLOUDY SKIES
WITH DRIZZLE RATHER THAN ROBUST RAIN SHOWERS. WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FURTHER TODAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WHILE A LLJ WILL INTENSIFY, SOUNDINGS
SHOW A SHARP TEMPERATURE INVERSION NEAR 850 MB, LIKELY KEEPING THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD POTENTIALLY MIX THESE
HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL
EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD, RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 40S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTED BY UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM, CAUSING FLOW TO BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVECTION OF WARM AIR INTO THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY, WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
IN SUMMARY, THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHT POP CHANCES, INCREASED SURFACE WINDS,
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, ENSURING A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE-AVERAGE WARMTH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLIFIED
FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WEST COAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SURFING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, A PROMINENT TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD, REACHING THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY. MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES THEN BECOME MORE APPARENT AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HEADS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
THEN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY, BUT AT THE COST OF A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND BACK BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR START TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT, WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 40S ON THE RIDGES. STRONGER
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ENGAGES ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH, KEEPING MOST OF THURSDAY DRY ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW 70
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE, SHOULD CLOUDS COME IN A BIT THINNER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN STARTS TO
INFILTRATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. POPS WILL PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE (80%) DURING
THIS TIME. OVERALL, THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT COMPARED TO RECENT RUNS, WITH LREF PROBABILTIES OF
EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN AN INCH HAVING INCREASED TO
50-70%, WHILE SOME 2 INCH SIGNALS (AROUND 30%), ARE NOW SHOWING UP
IN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN.
THANKFULLY, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE, WITH STREAMS AND RIVERS
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE. 6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALSO OVER 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND
WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, THE CURRENT
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING EVEN HALF THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
AMOUNTS IN 6 HOURS ARE LOW (10-20% OVER PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND
RIVER BASIN). AS SUCH, THIS RAINFALL WILL MOST LIKELY JUST RETURN
THE CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE.
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS ON SATURDAY, COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON
WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN
THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION, TO THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WITH 40S COMING BACK FOR
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SLOWLY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN
ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN ARRIVING WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS BY MIDDAY, TUESDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GREIF
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