416
FXUS63 KJKL 062122
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
422 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THE PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST WAS RATHER
ZONAL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ALSO NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MI INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEAR THE
IA AND NE BORDER. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA VICINITY TOWARD BC
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT
LAKES WERE MOVING ACROSS MI TOWARD WESTERN LAKE ERIE VICINITY
WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND WAS CENTERED IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLE VICINITY. LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KY AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF DRIZZLE
HAVE OCCURRED FROM MOISTURE THAT IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO NEAR
AND BELOW 850 MB OR 800 MB. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED PREVALENT AT
PRESENT PER SATELLITE IMAGERY THOUGH THERE WERE SOME BREAKS OR
THIN SPOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WERE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WHICH COMPARED TO
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FOR HIGHS.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE IN THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROGRESS TO QUEBEC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
REACH LAKE ERIE TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS BY DAWN ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THAT, HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE
THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NY TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY
TO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ABOUT 850 MB
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH IT COULD
THIN ENOUGH AT TIMES AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE WEST IN PARTICULAR
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THIS
EVENING AND AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES, MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN OR EASTERN LOCATIONS, WITH THESE CHANCES DIMINISHING
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LOWS WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH COLDER, BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S AND UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OH
VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND APPALACHIAN REGION AND PERIOD OF HEIGHT
RISES AT 500 MB IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF
A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER LOW THAT
EVENTUALLY EJECTS ACROSS NM AND THE SOUTHWEST AND REACHES THE
PLAINS TO END THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEASTERN
KY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS AND BECOMES
CENTERED IN THE DELMARVA VICINITY AS THE PERIOD ENDS. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DIMINISHING ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT BUT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH LOW TO MID
50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S PREVALENT SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND
NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PER MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND 12Z HREF MEAN CLOUD COVER, AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO DEPART, EASTERN VALLEYS SHOULD
DECOUPLE AND AND AT LEAST REACH THE MID 30S THOUGH READINGS IN THE
LOW 30S CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. MANY COALFIELD
RIDGETOPS AND SOME MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT DROP
BELOW 40.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL AMPLIFIED
FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE WEST COAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SURFING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, A PROMINENT TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD, REACHING THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY. MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES THEN BECOME MORE APPARENT AS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HEADS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
THEN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY, BUT AT THE COST OF A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND BACK BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR START TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT, WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 40S ON THE RIDGES. STRONGER
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ENGAGES ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH, KEEPING MOST OF THURSDAY DRY ACROSS OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW 70
DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE, SHOULD CLOUDS COME IN A BIT THINNER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN STARTS TO
INFILTRATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. POPS WILL PEAK IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE (80%) DURING
THIS TIME. OVERALL, THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT COMPARED TO RECENT RUNS, WITH LREF PROBABILTIES OF
EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL OF GREATER THAN AN INCH HAVING INCREASED TO
50-70%, WHILE SOME 2 INCH SIGNALS (AROUND 30%), ARE NOW SHOWING UP
IN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN.
THANKFULLY, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE, WITH STREAMS AND RIVERS
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA-WIDE. 6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALSO OVER 2 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND
WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, THE CURRENT
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING EVEN HALF THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
AMOUNTS IN 6 HOURS ARE LOW (10-20% OVER PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND
RIVER BASIN). AS SUCH, THIS RAINFALL WILL MOST LIKELY JUST RETURN
THE CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE.
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS ON SATURDAY, COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON
WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN
THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION, TO THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WITH 40S COMING BACK FOR
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
MVFR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH THE DOWNSLOPE
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE RESULTING IN LOWER END VFR
CEILINGS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES, THOUGH KSJS WAS INITIALLY
IN THE LOWER END OF VFR. MORE WESTERN LOCATIONS WERE IN THE LOWER
END OF THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT AND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. WINDS AT
ISSUANCE TIME WERE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE 5 TO 15KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEARS AND BASED ON
UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE AND A LOWERING OF
CEILINGS DEEPER INTO THE MVFR RANGE OR INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, ONCE THAT DISTURBANCE PASSES, DRIZZLE CHANCES END
AND A RETURN TO THE LOWER END OF VFR IS POSSIBLE AROUND 00Z AND
AFTER 06Z. ANOTHER RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY
CEILINGS IN THE LOWER END OF MVFR RANGE OR IFR RANGE IS POSSIBLE
NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING ROUGHLY THE 05Z TO 15Z
TIMEFRAME. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLACKEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AND BECOME LESS GUSTY TOWARD
00Z AND GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z AND
REMAINING WESTERLY TO END THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JP
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