306
FXUS63 KJKL 070440
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1140 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
FAVOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
- LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. ALSO UPPED
POPS TO INDICATE DRIZZLE CHANCES ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN (I.E., PINE MOUNTAIN AND VICINITY) FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATER TONIGHT BASED ON 00Z CAMS AND THE 00Z 1-HR
GFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
MOST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. WE DID LOWER SKY COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THE PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST WAS RATHER
ZONAL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ALSO NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS VICINITY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MI INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
UPSTREAM FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEAR THE
IA AND NE BORDER. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA VICINITY TOWARD BC
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT
LAKES WERE MOVING ACROSS MI TOWARD WESTERN LAKE ERIE VICINITY
WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND WAS CENTERED IN THE OK AND TX PANHANDLE VICINITY. LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KY AND A COUPLE ROUNDS OF DRIZZLE
HAVE OCCURRED FROM MOISTURE THAT IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO NEAR
AND BELOW 850 MB OR 800 MB. LOW CLOUDS REMAINED PREVALENT AT
PRESENT PER SATELLITE IMAGERY THOUGH THERE WERE SOME BREAKS OR
THIN SPOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WERE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WHICH COMPARED TO
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FOR HIGHS.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE IN THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROGRESS TO QUEBEC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
REACH LAKE ERIE TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO APPALACHIANS BY DAWN ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THAT, HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE
THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NY TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KY
TO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ABOUT 850 MB
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH IT COULD
THIN ENOUGH AT TIMES AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE WEST IN PARTICULAR
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THIS
EVENING AND AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES, MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN OR EASTERN LOCATIONS, WITH THESE CHANCES DIMINISHING
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LOWS WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH COLDER, BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR 40 OR LOWER 40S AND UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OH
VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND APPALACHIAN REGION AND PERIOD OF HEIGHT
RISES AT 500 MB IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF
A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER LOW THAT
EVENTUALLY EJECTS ACROSS NM AND THE SOUTHWEST AND REACHES THE
PLAINS TO END THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEASTERN
KY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING A BIT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS AND BECOMES
CENTERED IN THE DELMARVA VICINITY AS THE PERIOD ENDS. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DIMINISHING ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT BUT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH LOW TO MID
50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S PREVALENT SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND
NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PER MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND 12Z HREF MEAN CLOUD COVER, AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO DEPART, EASTERN VALLEYS SHOULD
DECOUPLE AND AND AT LEAST REACH THE MID 30S THOUGH READINGS IN THE
LOW 30S CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE COLDEST SPOTS. MANY COALFIELD
RIDGETOPS AND SOME MORE OPEN TERRAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT DROP
BELOW 40.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE GREATER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER THIS WEEK. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE'S MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL POSITION EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE SECOND ONE, WHICH IS
POISED TO PHASE WITH A STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS TRANSLATES TO WARM, WET SENSIBLE WEATHER IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT THE SECOND SYSTEM
IS POISED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND BROADER/DEEPER
TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THE BETTER-DEFINED
NATURE OF THE SECOND SYSTEM MEANS THAT IT IS MORE LIKELY TO USHER A
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE OVERARCHING FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE, WITH SOME DEGREE OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION ANTICIPATED
BY MIDWEEK.
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON THURSDAY MORNING, THE FIRST OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BE SITUATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ITS SURFACE
LOW REFLECTION WILL MOVE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH. THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S SFC HIGH WILL BE LINGERING ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS, RESULTING IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND ORIENTATION.
WHILE THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT
ORIENTATION WILL NOT FAVOR EFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO EASTERN KY. THEREFORE, THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/
UPPER 60S.
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHEN BOTH
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE PROPAGATED FURTHER
TO THE NE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD STRENGTHENING
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS TIME FRAME, AND A POTENT
50-60 KNOT 850MB JET IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE INCREASINGLY EFFECTIVE MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT, AND AN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.
INSULATION FROM THE RESULTANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT, AND LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES ARE
ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES, AND THE PWAT VALUES RANK ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. CONVENTIONALLY, ONE WOULD RAISE AN
EYEBROW AT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN SUCH A SET UP, BUT THERE ARE
SEVERAL MITIGATING FACTORS AT PLAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RELEGATED TO A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG IN THE
PRESENTLY AVAILABLE FORECAST GUIDANCE, AND KINEMATIC SUPPORT WILL
LIKELY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BY THE TIME ANY FRONTALLY FORCED CONVECTION REACHES OUR CWA
ON FRIDAY MORNING, AND MODELS DEPICT THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME. THIS MAKES GUSTY
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER THE FAVORED
FORECAST SOLUTION ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ALSO MEANS THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
FOR LONGER, RESULTING IN INCREASED QPF THERE. MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE INCH OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST LREF PROBABILITIES
FOR THIS ONE INCH THRESHOLD RANGE FROM 55% IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO
75-80% SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. WHEN THIS THRESHOLD IS
RAISED TO 2 INCHES, THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE LIMITED TO 30% IN
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
CUMBERLAND BASIN, BUT THANKFULLY, THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD FLUVIAL
FLOODING IS LOW. AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ENTERING THIS EVENT
WITH BELOW-NORMAL FLOW THANKS TO ANTECEDENT DRYNESS. OHRFC 6 HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES LEADING INTO THE EVENT ARE IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES, AND THE LATEST LREF PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT
THRESHOLD IN ANY SIX HOUR WINDOW OF TIME DURING THE EVENT IS LESS
THAN 10%. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NUISANCE-TYPE PLUVIAL FLOODING IN
URBAN LOCALES AND THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WPC HAS ACCORDINGLY OUTLINED LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-
64/BLUEGRASS PARKWAY CORRIDOR IN A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT NO MAJOR RIVER RISES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. RATHER, FRIDAY'S RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
MOST WATERWAYS CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOTED IN THE INTRODUCTORY PARAGRAPH
WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST FOR ONE MORE DAY.
AFTER THAT FEATURE PHASES WITH THE STRONGER NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH,
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EMERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS TO THE OCCLUSION/RETROGRADE OF THE
SYSTEM'S SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY, AND MULTIPLE TRAILING COLD FRONTS
COULD SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE 40S ON
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION COULD MIX WITH AND THEN TAPER OFF AS SNOW WITH
THE FINAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS
EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, AND THE PASSAGE OF
THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE COLUMN,
AND GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPS BELOW -10 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS TRANSLATES TO WIDESPREAD MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S ON
MONDAY MORNING, AND IF ENOUGH CLEARING IS REALIZED, THE COOLEST
VALLEYS COULD WAKE UP TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS. A
POSTFRONTAL HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY,
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO A QUASI-ZONAL STATE. MODELED
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND FLATTENED FLOW POINTS TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT NEAR-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ON MONDAY AND MID/UPPER 40S ON
TUESDAY AND LOWS CLOSER TO FREEZING ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT TAF ISSUANCE DUE
TO VARYING LOW CLOUD COVER, AND OSCILLATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
ARE LIKELY AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH ~09Z TO 12Z, WHEN A
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR (AND PERHAPS SOME IFR) DECK IS LIKELY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TERMINALS. THE BIG
QUESTION MARK THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS MVFR DECK IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS. GIVEN
MODELS TEND TO BE TOO QUICK WITH SUCH IMPROVEMENTS, OPTED FOR A
SLOWER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.WARMER
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS AT 5
KTS OR LESS BY 09Z, IF NOT SOONER. LIGHT WEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR
LESS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
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