836
FXUS63 KJKL 070931
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
431 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
FAVOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
- LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
BASED ON THE 0729Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, A 1009 MB MOISTURE-STARVED
SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. EXTENDING EASTWARD
ARE THE REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS COLD FRONT, WHICH IS MAINTAINING
EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW’S
CENTER THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, WITH LOW TO MID-50S OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. BY MID-
MORNING, THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT THIS
HIGH, THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SHIFT WILL CAUSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, MAINTAINING WAA ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
WEAK POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE MID-50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
AND THE MID-60S NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. CLEAR
SKIES WILL FACILITATE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, THOUGH WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP RIDGE TOPS WARMER. CONSEQUENTLY, A NOTABLE RIDGE-
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS EXPECTED BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY
MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN ON
THURSDAY. TO THE WEST, A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
COMMONWEALTH. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY, POTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT THE WARMEST
AIR OF THE YEAR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
70 DEGREES. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WHILE POP WILL INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
IN SUMMARY, THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED
SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE GREATER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER THIS WEEK. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE'S MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WILL POSITION EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE SECOND ONE, WHICH IS
POISED TO PHASE WITH A STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS TRANSLATES TO WARM, WET SENSIBLE WEATHER IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT THE SECOND SYSTEM
IS POISED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND BROADER/DEEPER
TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THE BETTER-DEFINED
NATURE OF THE SECOND SYSTEM MEANS THAT IT IS MORE LIKELY TO USHER A
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE OVERARCHING FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE, WITH SOME DEGREE OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION ANTICIPATED
BY MIDWEEK.
WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS ON THURSDAY MORNING, THE FIRST OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BE SITUATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ITS SURFACE
LOW REFLECTION WILL MOVE TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH. THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S SFC HIGH WILL BE LINGERING ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS, RESULTING IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND ORIENTATION.
WHILE THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, THAT
ORIENTATION WILL NOT FAVOR EFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO EASTERN KY. THEREFORE, THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID/
UPPER 60S.
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHEN BOTH
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE PROPAGATED FURTHER
TO THE NE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD STRENGTHENING
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS TIME FRAME, AND A POTENT
50-60 KNOT 850MB JET IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE INCREASINGLY EFFECTIVE MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT, AND AN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.
INSULATION FROM THE RESULTANT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT, AND LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES ARE
ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES, AND THE PWAT VALUES RANK ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. CONVENTIONALLY, ONE WOULD RAISE AN
EYEBROW AT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN SUCH A SET UP, BUT THERE ARE
SEVERAL MITIGATING FACTORS AT PLAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE RELEGATED TO A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG IN THE
PRESENTLY AVAILABLE FORECAST GUIDANCE, AND KINEMATIC SUPPORT WILL
LIKELY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BY THE TIME ANY FRONTALLY FORCED CONVECTION REACHES OUR CWA
ON FRIDAY MORNING, AND MODELS DEPICT THE DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME. THIS MAKES GUSTY
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER THE FAVORED
FORECAST SOLUTION ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ALSO MEANS THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM/MOIST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
FOR LONGER, RESULTING IN INCREASED QPF THERE. MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST ONE INCH OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST LREF PROBABILITIES
FOR THIS ONE INCH THRESHOLD RANGE FROM 55% IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR TO
75-80% SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. WHEN THIS THRESHOLD IS
RAISED TO 2 INCHES, THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE LIMITED TO 30% IN
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
CUMBERLAND BASIN, BUT THANKFULLY, THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD FLUVIAL
FLOODING IS LOW. AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ENTERING THIS EVENT
WITH BELOW-NORMAL FLOW THANKS TO ANTECEDENT DRYNESS. OHRFC 6 HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES LEADING INTO THE EVENT ARE IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES, AND THE LATEST LREF PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT
THRESHOLD IN ANY SIX HOUR WINDOW OF TIME DURING THE EVENT IS LESS
THAN 10%. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NUISANCE-TYPE PLUVIAL FLOODING IN
URBAN LOCALES AND THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WPC HAS ACCORDINGLY OUTLINED LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-
64/BLUEGRASS PARKWAY CORRIDOR IN A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT NO MAJOR RIVER RISES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. RATHER, FRIDAY'S RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
MOST WATERWAYS CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOTED IN THE INTRODUCTORY PARAGRAPH
WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST FOR ONE MORE DAY.
AFTER THAT FEATURE PHASES WITH THE STRONGER NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH,
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EMERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS TO THE OCCLUSION/RETROGRADE OF THE
SYSTEM'S SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY, AND MULTIPLE TRAILING COLD FRONTS
COULD SWING THROUGH THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE 40S ON
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION COULD MIX WITH AND THEN TAPER OFF AS SNOW WITH
THE FINAL FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY MORNING. A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS
EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, AND THE PASSAGE OF
THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE COLUMN,
AND GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPS BELOW -10 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS TRANSLATES TO WIDESPREAD MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S ON
MONDAY MORNING, AND IF ENOUGH CLEARING IS REALIZED, THE COOLEST
VALLEYS COULD WAKE UP TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS. A
POSTFRONTAL HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY,
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO A QUASI-ZONAL STATE. MODELED
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND FLATTENED FLOW POINTS TOWARDS DRIER
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT NEAR-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ON MONDAY AND MID/UPPER 40S ON
TUESDAY AND LOWS CLOSER TO FREEZING ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT TAF ISSUANCE DUE
TO VARYING LOW CLOUD COVER, AND OSCILLATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
ARE LIKELY AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH ~09Z TO 12Z, WHEN A
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR (AND PERHAPS SOME IFR) DECK IS LIKELY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TERMINALS. THE BIG
QUESTION MARK THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS MVFR DECK IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS. GIVEN
MODELS TEND TO BE TOO QUICK WITH SUCH IMPROVEMENTS, OPTED FOR A
SLOWER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.WARMER
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS AT 5
KTS OR LESS BY 09Z, IF NOT SOONER. LIGHT WEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR
LESS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
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