587
FXUS63 KJKL 071011
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
511 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
FAVOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
- LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
BASED ON THE 0729Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, A 1009 MB MOISTURE-STARVED
SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. EXTENDING EASTWARD
ARE THE REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS COLD FRONT, WHICH IS MAINTAINING
EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW’S
CENTER THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, WITH LOW TO MID-50S OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. BY MID-
MORNING, THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT THIS
HIGH, THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SHIFT WILL CAUSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, MAINTAINING WAA ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
WEAK POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE MID-50S IN THE BLUEGRASS
AND THE MID-60S NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. CLEAR
SKIES WILL FACILITATE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, THOUGH WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP RIDGE TOPS WARMER. CONSEQUENTLY, A NOTABLE RIDGE-
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS EXPECTED BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY
MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN ON
THURSDAY. TO THE WEST, A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
COMMONWEALTH. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY, POTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT THE WARMEST
AIR OF THE YEAR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
70 DEGREES. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WHILE POP WILL INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
IN SUMMARY, THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED
SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
AREA THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
AT THE OPEN OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. UPPER-LEVELS (500-MB HEIGHTS) REVEAL A
LARGE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER CONUS, WITH A DEPARTING RIDGE OCCUPYING
AN AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL US BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO RIDE
THE LEE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH, EJECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING. MODELS DEPICT A 50-60KT LLJ (LOW LEVEL JET) AT 850-MB WITH
LITTLE TO NO INVERSION PRESENT IN SOUNDINGS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SUGGESTS THE SURFACE COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONGOING SHOWERS COULD ALSO AID IN
MIXING SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
WHILE SHOWERS OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING, A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS PRESENT OVER
THE GULF, AIDING IN CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR
POLEWARD. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA,
AS THE REGION FINDS ITSELF IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT. THETA-E FIELDS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT (PRECIPITABLE
WATER) IS FORECASTED AROUND 1.25 INCHES ONCE MOISTURE IS ENTRAINED.
LREF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAL CHANCES OF SEEING 1
INCH OF RAINFALL RANGING FROM 40-50% NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR, 50-
80% SOUTH OF I-64 BUT NORTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR, AND 80-
85% ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE LREF ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY
OF MEETING OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL AROUND 25-35% ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR.
STEADIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WHERE SHOWERS WILL
ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND TIME OF DAY DON'T FAVOR
STRONG ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MERELY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF A
RUMBLE OR TWO, WITH LITTLE TO NO INVERSION PRESENT ALOFT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID, 6-HR FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS OVER 2 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THE 1-2 INCHES OF EXPECTED RAINFALL IS ALSO OVER 48 HOURS.
WHILE THERE MAY BE PONDING WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, LARGE SCALE
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE 2ND SYSTEMS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY,
COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
CENTRAL US WILL HAVE NOW PROGRESSED EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
DROP PRETTY STEADILY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE EARLIER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY, AND MAY EVEN MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AFTER
THE REMNANT SHOWERS TAPER OFF SUNDAY, QUIET WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS AROUND MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE COLD AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY, LOWS WILL COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO RIDGE-
VALLEY SPLITS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS AROUND 30.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT TAF ISSUANCE DUE
TO VARYING LOW CLOUD COVER, AND OSCILLATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
ARE LIKELY AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH ~09Z TO 12Z, WHEN A
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR (AND PERHAPS SOME IFR) DECK IS LIKELY TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TERMINALS. THE BIG
QUESTION MARK THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS MVFR DECK IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS. GIVEN
MODELS TEND TO BE TOO QUICK WITH SUCH IMPROVEMENTS, OPTED FOR A
SLOWER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW.WARMER
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS AT 5
KTS OR LESS BY 09Z, IF NOT SOONER. LIGHT WEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR
LESS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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