681
FXUS63 KJKL 072030
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO FAVOR
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
- LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO
KENTUCKY AND HELPED TO CLEAR OUT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DELIVERED TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY WHILE MID
TO UPPER 50S ARE NOTED TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK
SUPPORTING FAST MID LEVEL, AND NEARLY ZONAL, FLOW OVER KENTUCKY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE FLOW WILL THEN TILT
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGHING AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM AND STARTS TO
SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PUSHES SOME WEAK ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA AT MID-LEVELS BUT ITS CORE WILL STAY WEST AND
NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THAT DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW TIGHTENS UP AND SENDS GULF MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE VERY SMALL
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING
POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED -
MAINLY ADDING IN MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A COOLER NIGHT THAN LAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DECENT BOUT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, WE ANTICIPATE A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SETTING UP TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION, ENOUGH LINGERING
GROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS
OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING - A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE - LOOK FOR A
PLEASANT AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST PLACES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY WITH ITS
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA BY EVENING (A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS BUT NEARLY
ALL WILL STAY DRY). AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY STARTING TO ENCROACH UPON EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
ADDING MORE TERRAIN BASED DETAILS FOR THE HOURLY AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
AT THE OPEN OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. UPPER-LEVELS (500-MB HEIGHTS) REVEAL A
LARGE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER CONUS, WITH A DEPARTING RIDGE OCCUPYING
AN AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A TROUGH ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL US BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO RIDE
THE LEE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH, EJECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING. MODELS DEPICT A 50-60KT LLJ (LOW LEVEL JET) AT 850-MB WITH
LITTLE TO NO INVERSION PRESENT IN SOUNDINGS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SUGGESTS THE SURFACE COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONGOING SHOWERS COULD ALSO AID IN
MIXING SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE.
WHILE SHOWERS OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING, A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS PRESENT OVER
THE GULF, AIDING IN CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR
POLEWARD. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA,
AS THE REGION FINDS ITSELF IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT. THETA-E FIELDS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT (PRECIPITABLE
WATER) IS FORECASTED AROUND 1.25 INCHES ONCE MOISTURE IS ENTRAINED.
LREF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAL CHANCES OF SEEING 1
INCH OF RAINFALL RANGING FROM 40-50% NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR, 50-
80% SOUTH OF I-64 BUT NORTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR, AND 80-
85% ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN. THE LREF ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY
OF MEETING OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL AROUND 25-35% ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL-ROGERS/KY-80 CORRIDOR.
STEADIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WHERE SHOWERS WILL
ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH. IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND TIME OF DAY DON'T FAVOR
STRONG ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MERELY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF A
RUMBLE OR TWO, WITH LITTLE TO NO INVERSION PRESENT ALOFT.
WITH ALL THIS SAID, 6-HR FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS OVER 2 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THE 1-2 INCHES OF EXPECTED RAINFALL IS ALSO OVER 48 HOURS.
WHILE THERE MAY BE PONDING WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, LARGE SCALE
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS THE SECOND SYSTEM COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY, COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE
WEST. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL US WILL HAVE NOW PROGRESSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP PRETTY STEADILY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EARLIER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY, AND MAY EVEN MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AFTER THE REMNANT SHOWERS TAPER OFF SUNDAY,
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS AROUND MID-
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE COLD AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY, LOWS WILL COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO RIDGE-
VALLEY SPLITS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS AROUND 30.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
DRIER AIR RELATED TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO
KENTUCKY HAS CLEARED THE LINGERING FOG AND LOW STRATUS OF THE
MORNING RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TO START THE
18Z TAF CYCLE. LOOK FOR A POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOW VIS OR CIGS
AT LOZ, SME, AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
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