749
FXUS63 KJKL 072123
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
423 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO FAVOR
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
- LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
- A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO
KENTUCKY AND HELPED TO CLEAR OUT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS DELIVERED TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY WHILE MID
TO UPPER 50S ARE NOTED TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, AMID LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK
SUPPORTING FAST MID LEVEL, AND NEARLY ZONAL, FLOW OVER KENTUCKY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE FLOW WILL THEN TILT
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGHING AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM AND STARTS TO
SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PUSHES SOME WEAK ENERGY
THROUGH THE AREA AT MID-LEVELS BUT ITS CORE WILL STAY WEST AND
NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THAT DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW TIGHTENS UP AND SENDS GULF MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE VERY SMALL
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS SUPPORTED USING THE NBM AS THE STARTING
POINT OF THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED -
MAINLY ADDING IN MORE TERRAIN DISTINCTION TO TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A COOLER NIGHT THAN LAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DECENT BOUT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, WE ANTICIPATE A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SETTING UP TOWARD SUNSET AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION, ENOUGH LINGERING
GROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS
OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING - A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE - LOOK FOR A
PLEASANT AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST PLACES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THURSDAY WITH ITS
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA BY EVENING (A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS BUT NEARLY
ALL WILL STAY DRY). AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY STARTING TO ENCROACH UPON EASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN FRIDAY.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT PRIMARILY CONSISTED OF
ADDING MORE TERRAIN BASED DETAILS FOR THE HOURLY AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CUBA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NORTH NEAR TO EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH THE AXIS OF THAT RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH TO THE WEST OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS TO NEAR THE BC COAST. IN BETWEEN A TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CANADA SOUTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS AS WELL AS CENTRAL CONUS. AN INITIAL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MAY BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WHILE A MORE
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO INITIALLY EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO MO, AN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NM, WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO MT AND WY
TO CO FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN MI VICINITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIFTING ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN KY TO PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS. THAT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. AT THAT POINT, THE
12Z LREF MEAN HAS PW RANGING FROM THE AROUND 0.9 INCHES OR ABOUT
THE 90TH PERCENTILE ALONG THE VA BORDER UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES OR
NEAR THE 98TH PERCENTILE IN THE WEST AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL HAVE TRANSPORTED IN A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS.
ON FRIDAY, THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE ONE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHES ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. FURTHER WEST,
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW TREKKING
FROM NM TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE VICINITY. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT ACROSS AND THEN NORTH OF EASTERN
KY AS THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO QUEBEC. THE COLD
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD APPROACH EASTERN KY AND SAG INTO THE
OH VALLEY TEMPORARILY ON FRIDAY TO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH
THE UPPER LOW LIKELY TO BECOME AND OPEN WAVE AND BEGIN TO MERGE
WITH THE TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD DEVELOP/ORGANIZE IN THE TX VICINITY AND TREK TOWARD THE TN
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY CAUSES
THE BOUNDARY TO BUCKLE BACK TO THE NORTH FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN TREK TO THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP/ORGANIZE
OVER THE DAKOTAS VICINITY DROP SOUTH TOWARD IA AND IL AND THEN
REACH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
APPROACHES EASTERN KY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
TREK ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH FAIRLY EARLY ON SATURDAY AND REACH
THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO CROSS
EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
FOLLOWING. OVERALL, DURING THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS
OF THE 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF EASTERN KY DURING THIS
TIME.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS
VARIABILITY IN QPF MAINLY AS THE SECONDARY SFC WAVE TRACKS INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND DEPARTS TO THE NORTH INTO SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS AT TIMES HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY HEAVIER WITH
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING QPF NEARER TO THE TN AND VA
BORDER IN PARTICULAR OR MORE OR LESS THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN
WHEN COMPARED TO THE NBM DETERMINISTIC AND ECMWF QPF FOR INSTANCE.
A DRY PERIOD HAS FOLLOWED RAIN THAT FELL ON DECEMBER 29TH SO
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT ABNORMALLY MOIST SO THAT SHOULD BE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR HYDRO CONCERNS UNLESS LARGER TOTALS WERE TO
OCCUR LOCALLY IN A 6 TO 12 HOURS PERIOD. STRONGER SHOWERS OR ANY
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS. MOST OF THE AREA FOR DAY 3 IS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK (10% PROBABILITY OF A STORM), THOUGH THE LATEST DAY 3
OUTLOOK HAS SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK. INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT BEST, BUT A STRAY STORM OR SHOWERS
THAT MIXED DOWN SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON AVERAGE AT LEAST 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD
INCLUDE POSSIBLE PEAK WIND GUSTS SEVERAL MPH HIGHER THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST ON FRIDAY ASSUMING SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THE
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES OCCURS AS SHOWERS ARRIVE AND SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE ALSO MAY BE A PERIOD OF DRY SLOTTING IN THE
MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST AND WITHIN THAT A FEW PEAK GUSTS SEVERAL
MPH HIGHER THE CURRENT HOURLY FORECAST WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SUNDAY IN SUNDAY EVENING WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE WINTER TIME LEVELS AROUND THE -10C
TO ABOUT THE -12C LEVEL PER THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. SOME LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
COULD RESULT IN INITIALLY A FEW FLURRIES IN THE WEST AND SOME
SPRINKLES IN THE WEST AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS. IF THESE OCCUR
WHATEVER FALLS WOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. IT WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN BE NO HIGHER THAN THE 30S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SFC
AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO CAROLINAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT MAY OCCUR AT
LEAST OVER MORE WESTERN LOCATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT COLDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS TYPICAL OF WINTER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THERE. THE
COLD AIR MASS LINGERS INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PEAK ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WOULD BE FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST A MODERATE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT AS THOSE AREA MAY DECOUPLE
EARLY IN THE EVENING AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK ABOVE
TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER
TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
NEARS LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER AND MORE
UNIFORM AND A TREND TO MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. PENDING THE TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE AREA
AT MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
DRIER AIR RELATED TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO
KENTUCKY HAS CLEARED THE LINGERING FOG AND LOW STRATUS OF THE
MORNING RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TO START THE
18Z TAF CYCLE. LOOK FOR A POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOW VIS OR CIGS
AT LOZ, SME, AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
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